Pictures of the Future Spring 2008
Tailored Solutions | Rail Transport Study
Rail Systems of the Future – Lighter, Smarter, Faster
In collaboration with the Siemens Mobility Division, Siemens Corporate Technology has analyzed the requirements of rail traffic for the next ten to twenty years in a study called "Picture of the Future Rail" that focuses on the Indian, Russian, Chinese, U.S., and European markets. The study basically employed the methodology of the "Pictures of the Future" procedure that Siemens uses for strategic planning, whereby the project team organized workshops with customers, operators, scientists, and other experts, defining key technologies and deducing detailed scenarios that incorporate mega trends such as urbanization, demographic change, security, environmental protection, and the depletion of raw material resources. Thus a picture of the future was created that extends to the year 2025.
The study shows that rail traffic will increase substantially all over the world. The reason is that the number of large cities and urban areas will grow dramatically, and track infrastructure forms an important base for the economic prosperity of a region. Forecasts suggest that by 2025 passenger rail traffic will increase by more than 30 % worldwide, and freight traffic will grow by over 65 %. Passengers will benefit from shorter waiting times, better service and more attractive and more comfortable vehicles. The trains—often fully automated—will no longer stay a specified distance apart, but will instead maintain spacing in accordance with their relative speeds. This will lead to major savings in time and energy.
High-speed passenger trains operating at speeds of up to 450 km/h will shorten travel times between major cities. In addition, separate corridors will be established for freight traffic. This will lead to improved transportation capacity as well as to faster passenger traffic, as slower freight traffic will run on its own tracks. In China and India, for example, double-decker container cars could run on newly constructed roadbeds. Driverless freight cars could operate along selected routes. The customer specifies the destination, the car hooks itself into the traffic flow and reaches its destination completely on its own.
Of course, demand will not be the same everywhere. Priorities vary from region to region, focusing either on expanding local transport services (the U.S., Europe, China, India), the targeted expansion of long-distance passenger and freight traffic (China, India) or modernizing existing railroad systems (Russia).
In all of these areas, environmental protection will have very high priority. In 2025, trains will be lighter in weight and their drive systems will use less energy. Experts have high hopes concerning wheel hub motors. In this technology, the wheel, motor, and brake are combined into a single unit, and an electric drive is located directly in the wheel. Transmissions and drive shafts are thus obviated, along with associated losses in power transmission.
One option for non-electrified lines is the use of trains that are powered by fuel cells that would be refueled at hydrogen filling stations along the railway line. All of the energy would be generated directly on board the train and without producing any harmful emissions. And thanks to the combination of lightweight construction and onboard energy storage for braking energy, trams may be able to manage without any overhead lines in inner cities. Moreover, lightweight train design will reduce wear and tear on rails and thus also cut maintenance costs.
Researchers expect that by 2025 materials will have been developed that, in case of fire, are either self-extinguishing or non-flammable. These materials will utilize nanoparticles incorporated in metals, ceramics, and polymers, in the form of an oil or a gel, for example. Thanks to precise location identification, the European satellite navigation system "Galileo" will make it possible to reduce the distances between trains. In this way, it will be possible to transport many times more traffic volume over the same railroad infrastructure than is possible today.
The Pictures of the Future report finds that improved mobility of freight and passengers will in particular be facilitated by the intelligent networking of transportation systems and the integration of all modes of transport. Thanks to telematics, standardized communication systems, and uniform interfaces, all of the various transportation modes will be optimally harmonized with one another and associated information will be interlinked—whether it’s about individual or rail traffic, parking garages, train stations or airports. Passengers and motorists, for example, will have access to a wealth of information that relates to their own specific travel plans. A single ticket will then be valid for all transportation operators, and passengers will be able travel in comfort from door to door by bus, train, plane, or subway.
Evdoxia Tsakiridou