Pictures of the Future    Spring 2007

Our Vanishing Options

More frequent storms, flooding in Jakarta, and the warmest winter in over 100 years –the last few months’ weather has provided clear indications of the consequences of climate change. The gravity of the situation was put in writing in February 2007, when the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published its fourth report (the others were in 1990, 1995, and 2001). This document summed up all scientific knowledge on the issue to date, in a consensus view from 130 countries. The report makes clearer than ever before that we’re already in the initial stages of climate change, and that humans are the main cause of these developments. According to the study, "It is considered a definite fact that human actions have led to an increase in average global temperature since 1750, primarily through the burning of fossil fuels, agricultural activities and changes in land utilization." The predicted consequences will be extreme weather events including heat waves, heavy rains and rising sea levels. The key question here is: How intense will the impact of these changes be? The answer, according to scientists, depends on which actions people take now and in the future.

Global warming is leading to storms, droughts, melting glaciers and dwindling ice caps. Together, these changes threaten the existence of hundreds of species

The EU has set itself the goal of reducing CO₂ emissions (a main cause of global warming) from 1990 levels by at least 20 % by 2020. One method used here will be to reduce emissions of newly registered vehicles in Europe to 120 grams of CO₂ per kilometer driven, beginning in 2012 (the current level is about 160 g/km). California is already the first U.S. state to pledge to reduce its CO₂ emissions by 2020, aiming for a 25-% cut. China has also begun to recognize the need to take such steps. The government plans to budget the equivalent of $175 billion for environmental protection measures in its next five-year plan. Meanwhile, Australia is looking to ban the sale of conventional light bulbs beginning in 2010.

Redefining the Energy System. In an  interview with Pictures of the Future, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, points out that such measures will not suffice over the long term to prevent sustained environmental damage. "There’s simply no escaping the fact that we need to cut global CO₂ emissions by 2050 to half of 1990 levels." And at the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the end of January this year in Davos, top executives and politicians from around the world called for stepped-up efforts to stop climate change.

A big eye-opener here was a report published in late October last year by Sir Nicholas Stern, an advisor to the British government. The experts who wrote the report addressed for the first time the economic costs of climate change. The results were sobering. According to the study, a further increase in CO₂ emissions could push the cost of climate-related damages to as much as 20 % of global domestic product per year (see The Cost of Climate Change). At the same time, however, implementing measures that would limit the global temperature increase to less than two degrees would lead to costs totaling only around 1 % of global economic output. "This, in turn, would require converting to a new, low-carbon global energy system," says Schellnhuber.

"If actions geared toward the long term are taken in a timely manner, the shock of implementing such a low-carbon-based system could be absorbed by the world economy," says Dr. Georg Rosenbauer, CO₂ expert at Siemens Power Generation in Erlangen. "Last year’s rising oil prices alone cost more than the total sum that would have been necessary to minimize damage from climate change worldwide over the same period. Furthermore, we already have many of the solutions."

Examples abound in areas such as building systems. Completely renovating an old building, for example, reduces by up to 56 % the amount of heat required for keeping rooms warm, which itself accounts for 80 % of energy consumption in private households. New houses built using the passive house standard can reduce energy requirements by more than 90 %. And the promotion of hybrid motors, the recovering of braking energy, and other related measures, could help reduce a large share of emissions from vehicle traffic. There are also ways to save energy by conserving electricity. Many appliances can be operated using as much as 75 % less electricity, and energy-saving lamps and light-emitting diodes use about 80 % less electricity than conventional light bulbs (see  Energy Picture).

Another method of reducing CO₂ emissions is to boost power plant efficiency. "Equipping all coal-fired power plants with state-of-the-art technology would reduce their CO₂ emissions by around 25 %," says Dr. Klaus Kleinfeld, President and CEO of Siemens and, since March 2007, Chairman of the BDI (Federation of German Industries) Climate Protection Initiative. Looking to the future, Kleinfeld adds that, "if we factor in separation technologies, we could reduce emissions by 80 %." Siemens is already developing procedures for separating and storing CO₂. An important step here was the acquisition of the Swiss Sustec Group’s coal gasification and synthesis operations in 2006. The processes developed by Sustec convert coal into synthesis gas, which is then transformed into CO₂ and hydrogen. The latter produces few pollutants when burned, and the CO₂ can be separated and sequestered underground (see  Zero-Emission Power Plants).

Renewable energy is also essential. Vast wind parks already provide millions of households with electricity—and Siemens is the world market leader for off­shore wind power facilities. Around one-fifth of the electricity generated world­wide is now produced by hydroelectric power plants (s: Wave Power Plants). And heat from the depths of the earth can also be tapped without releasing CO₂. To this end, Siemens is now completing a geothermal power plant near Munich that will supply 6,000 households with electricity and 20,000 with heat (see Earth, Fire, Wind and Water). Energy can even be obtained from waste. Here, Siemens supplies control technology for waste disposal plants that pro­cess household garbage into fuel for power plants (s.  Energy from Waste). Much can also be done to improve automobiles. Siemens researchers plan to use the concept of the hub motor to place electric motors directly on the wheels. This would make it possible to convert up to 96 % of the electrical energy generated into power for vehicle propulsion—11 % more than what today’s most efficient hybrid vehicles are capable of.

Many low-carbon technologies such as fuel cells (left), offshore wind parks (center), and hybrid motors for automobiles (right) are already being used today

Siemens’ portfolio of environmentally friendly technologies is already extensive. "The world of alternative energy is no longer the domain of nature-loving wind power types," said Dan Esty, director of Yale University’s Center for Environmental Law & Policy, at the WEF in Davos. "Today, the biggest companies are funding development of such technologies."

Siemens is one of many companies that belong to the 3C (Combating Climate Change) initiative, established at the start of this year by Swedish energy company Vattenfall. 3C aims to promote a joint effort by governments, businesses, and consumers to convert to a low-CO₂ economy. "The time has come to act," says Rosenbauer. "We can still set course for a long-term transformation—but in ten years, our options will have vanished."
                                                                                                             Sebastian Webel