Pictures of the Future Spring 2007
Livable Megacities – Trends
Lights and Dreams
Megacities are like magnets. Although their infrastructures are often inadequate and their populations face huge challenges, they are still regarded as the places where dreams come true.
Lighting up Buenos Aires. The 140-m-wide Avenida 9 de Julio in the Argentine capital is considered to be the world’s widest street. It’s an impressive display of the appeal of city life
Maybe it will be a salesman who moves to New York, or perhaps a skilled tradesman who settles in Mumbai—at some point this year, one individual moving to a city will tip the scale, and for the first time in history more people will be living in cities than in rural areas. The development is dramatic in scale. Two thirds of the planet’s population will be living in cities by 2050. The biggest impact will be felt in megacities, defined by the UN as cities with more than ten million inhabitants. Growth in these huge metropolitan areas presents extraordinary challenges in terms of energy and water supplies, and traffic and transport systems. An adequate infrastructure is often nonexistent in emerging markets, while in established cities it’s frequently outdated.
Mercer Consulting publishes an annual ranking of quality of life in cities, measured in terms of tangible factors. While it may seem paradoxical, many low-ranked cities are experiencing particularly dynamic growth. Mumbai, for example, was most recently ranked 150th of 215 cities. However, about 350 families move there every day. According to the UN, the population of the Nigerian capital Lagos (199th) is expected to increase to 20 million by 2010 and reach 40 million by 2025.
"This phenomenon is easy to explain," says urban expert Prof. George Hazel, director of the MRC McLean Hazel consulting firm based in Edinburgh, Scotland. "Ultimately, even these cities offer much better development opportunities than the surrounding areas. People who live in cities also gain access to services such as medical care. In the countryside these services aren’t available or are too far away." And cities shine brightly—something that’s very apparent when you look at images taken by satellites. But they also have a magic attraction that isn’t limited to the light they emit. That’s because they’re places where dreams can come true. Shanghai overflows with optimism, Dubai conveys the impression of unlimited, magical growth, while New York and Tokyo are archetypical of the urban legend.
Needed: Optimism and Good Governance. The Mercer study has a more sober view of all of this, which is a good thing given that the firm acts as a consultant for companies that send employees abroad. As a result, Mercer rankings are based on an assessment and comparison of factors such as health care, traffic and transport infrastructure, safety and cleanliness. The study is a view from the outside, of course; on the inside, things are often perceived differently. "Contentment with one’s living conditions doesn’t depend directly on the physical design of a city," says urban psychologist Christian Hoffmann in an interview. This is confirmed by a research project supported by Siemens, which found that half of the people surveyed rated the quality of life in their city as at least average (see Facts and Forecasts). The finding was also valid for participants living in emerging markets. Conducted by MRC McLean Hazel and the GlobeScan research institute, this study polled 522 decision-makers in 25 of the world’s largest cities. The respondents were asked to indicate their most urgent problems and their expectations for the future. The study found that politicians, urban planners and others who influence urban development are mostly optimistic about the future. "And they have to be," says Hazel, "because you can’t overcome the challenges of urban growth unless you have a positive attitude."
New York’s Central Park, extensive subway system and ultramodern subway control center provide leisure, reliable transportation and security for millions of people
The study also found that the trend in city agencies around the world is moving away from simply administering public services toward actively managing them. "This makes it possible to improve the quality of life to the highest possible level—even in big cities, with all their problems," explains Hazel. Money isn’t usually the most pressing issue when it comes to making improvements, he says. The key issue is good governance and integrated long-term planning. This is the foundation of the effective use of funds. It’s also important to get citizens involved and to give them responsibility. Curitiba in Brazil is a good example. Years ago, the city’s water reservoirs were filled with garbage (see Interview Brazil). To remedy the situation, city authorities paid fishermen to remove the garbage. In addition to earning more money, the fishermen also benefited from the fact that the water became cleaner and was thus able to support more fish. For its part, the city benefited from a service that cost much less than would have been the case if a waste removal company had been hired for the job.
Modern information technology offers an elegant—and democratic—way to get citizens involved, which in turn boosts their quality of life. E-government solutions, for example, enable residents to file applications and tax returns more quickly and easily (see e-Government). They also save municipal authorities money by making processes more transparent. Because most government officials today tend to focus only on their own areas of responsibility, even projects based on the best intentions often have a negative effect in the end. Hazel tells the story of a new, modern hospital that was built just outside his home town of Edinburgh. The idea was to offer more efficient patient care at lower cost. But because public transport connections to the hospital were poor, almost all visitors and staff had to drive and pay high parking fees. "There was no holistic planning. The hospital externalized its costs but the result didn’t improve the overall quality of life for the city’s citizens," says Hazel.
That’s why Hazel proposes an approach in which district managers have an overview of all the relevant factors and cooperate closely with planning experts from specific infrastructure segments. Siemens has been working in a similar way for several years, with interdisciplinary teams implementing projects for facilities such as airports, hospitals, hotels and stadiums. The advantage here is that the company’s complete range of expertise is harnessed and utilized synergistically. This is good for customers, who no longer have to deal with several different partners—while also receiving higher-quality products and services. Dr. Willfried Wienholt, head of Urban Development at Siemens, is a contact partner for megacities. "I talk to mayors and urban planners and try to advise them on strategy," says Wienholt. "The key is to develop a joint and holistic point of view that includes the interdependency between ecology and infrastructure, for example. My goal is to open up new perspectives and find innovative solutions."
Requirements vary sharply from city to city, however. In emerging markets, for example, the most important initial aspect is meeting basic needs like housing, food, water and energy. Wienholt points out that Siemens offers expertise in developing public infrastructures (see City Development in Pictures of the Future, Fall 2006). "When people have enough to eat and are warm in the winter, they begin to seek to improve their social status and develop their potential," says Wienholt. Consequently, the more developed a city is, as a rule, the higher its citizens’ expectations will be.
One factor that has a negative impact in every city is noise, particularly from road traffic. Aircraft, industry and power plants also contribute to the problem, and noise levels sometimes get high enough to make people sick. Siemens uses several approaches to the diminution and elimination of noise (see Noise Prevention). Siemens Power Generation, for example, has a team that works on reducing power plant noise levels as efficiently as possible. Siemens engineers are also reducing the noise levels of trains, while more and more vehicles are using piezo injectors, which help to make combustion not only more efficient but also quieter.
Road traffic can also be made more acceptable by using traffic information systems that help prevent congestion and make it easier for motorists to find parking spaces. Navigation systems can even be used to help pedestrians find their way through unfamiliar cities. Siemens has also developed a museum guide that uses virtual markers and provides museum visitors with information on exhibits via a handheld computer (see Navigation Systems).
Bright Lights, Small Cameras.Security is a high priority in all big cities. Here, video cameras can do more than help police officers solve crimes; they can also prevent crime from happening in the first place. Londonis a pioneer in this field. Any reservations its citizens might have had about cameras in public places were eliminated after the July 2005 terrorist attacks. Now, Siemens experts are working on algorithms that will enable image recordings to be assessed automatically on the basis of unusual activity (see Security). Studies have shown that better visibility and lighting can also help prevent crime in public places—for example, at building entrances and in parks.
Lighting plays a big role in improving the quality of life. Bright lights at work—in combination with daylight—heighten employees’ concentration, while warm lighting at home creates a pleasant atmosphere. A leader in lighting technology, the Siemens subsidiary Osram is also playing a part in a revolution that’s changing cities and much more (see Let There Be Light). The company is producing light-emitting diodes for everything from pin-sized lamps to large plastic spotlights. The diodes are extremely efficient, dramatically cut energy use and are very long-lasting. They also open up completely new possibilities for facade lighting and interior lighting systems. Given their attractive properties, light diodes will probably be given the task of ensuring that the cities of tomorrow continue to shine brightly.
Norbert Aschenbrenner