Pictures of the Future Spring 2007
Livable Megacities – Lighting
Light: A Spectrum of Applications
In a study entitled "Picture of the Lighting Future," Osram examined the trends, technologies and customer requirements that will dominate the lighting market in 10 to 15 years. Alongside the global trend toward sustainable products, Osram researchers predict the advent of completely new types of light sources and application areas.
The study employed the "Pictures of the Future" methodology that Siemens uses for strategic planning. In this case, specialists from Osram and Siemens conducted around 50 interviews with external experts, defined key technologies and examined their impact on regional markets. The results were used to create detailed scenarios for various areas of life, which were then combined to generate business ideas for Osram.
One of the most important findings from the study is the trend toward energy-conserving light sources. And there’s good reason for this trend. Lighting consumes 19 % of all the electricity generated worldwide. In terms of the current energy mix, that’s the equivalent of 1.6 bill. t of CO2 emissions per year, or the emissions produced by 500 million passenger cars traveling 20,000 km per year and emitting 160 g of CO2 per kilometer. What’s more, lighting-related electricity consumption can be expected to double over the next ten years in Asia alone. At present, an average American uses around 30 times more lighting (expressed as lumens x time) than does an average person in India and ten times more than a person in China. Probably the best way to limit this trend is to use energy-saving lamps and light-emitting diodes, which not only consume 80 % less electricity for the same light output, but also last 15to 50 times longer than conventional incandescent light bulbs. In other words, an energy-saving lamp can reduce CO2 emissions by half a ton throughout its entire lifespan.
Osram researchers also predict that more and more complete lighting systems consisting of lamps or light-emitting diodes (LEDs), sensors and electronic systems will be sold in the future, rather than individual components. Such systems could use motion detectors to adjust to requirements at a given time, thereby ensuring that energy savings are optimized. In addition, solar cell systems, rechargeable batteries and LED lamps could provide light for the 1.5 billion people who are currently using gas and petroleum lamps, which are dangerous to their health.
New technologies are opening up completely new possibilities and giving lighting system designers unprecedented flexibility. Such technologies include point-shaped LEDs and wide-area organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs), which enable the development of flexible light sources, transparent light walls, luminescent tiles and adhesive films, as well as integrated ceiling lights. The new light sources are also ideal for signs, billboards, lighting effects in clothing, jewelry and furniture, as well as exciting new lighting architectures. Displays using the new technologies will be on view everywhere—in cell phones, roll-out electronic newspapers or wallpaper that changes its design, and Internet, TV and video terminals.
Alongside sustainability, the focus in Europe will be on comfort and safety, whereby the alteration of lighting colors and moods, combined with a clever mixture of natural and artificial light, will influence people’s feelings. Intelligent emergency and exit guidance lighting will improve safety in houses and on streets, sidewalks and squares. Context-related light sources will create new applications, one of which will involve the installation of tiny light sources, linked to temperature sensors, into water faucets. When hot, the water stream will light up red; when cool it will turn blue. Light will also be used more frequently in health care—for example, in devices that emit "light showers," which provide people with more energy by stimulating serotonin production and suppressing melatonin production. In addition, light can be used to treat certain types of skin disorders. Doctors and surgeons will also use laser light more frequently, not only as scalpels and optical tweezers, but also to conduct fluorescent-optical analyses of cancer cells.
Ulrich Eberl