Pictures of the Future    Spring 2006

The Drive for Growth

Studies of the market development of electric drives always focus on individual industries and regions or different performance classes (several watts to hundreds of megawatts). Generally, the markets for electric drives are growing at rates of between three and more than 10 %. Especially in Asia, strong demand is driving growth. In Germany, according to the German Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers’ Organization (ZVEI), the sector’s sales of electric drives and accessories amounted to approximately 8.6 bill. € in 2005.

A December 2004 study by IMS Research depicts global development using the example of alternating current (AC) and direct current (DC) motors operated with low voltages of up to 700 V (graphic above). Including software and services, the worldwide market in this area amounted to about $5.2 billion in 2003; by 2008, the figure should be $6.9 billion. Growth is strongest for high-end alternating current drives, but also for direct current drives, for example in mining, the chemical industry and the pulp and paper industry.

According to IMS Research, standard alternating current drives with outputs of between 25 and 500 kW account for over 50 % of this market. The highest growth rates (6.5 % on average) are in compact alternating current drives (outputs under 25 kW). Here, sales should amount to $1.1 billion in 2008. The drives discussed in the study are used especially in sectors such as food processing, heating, ventilation, air conditioning and in the packaging industry.

Of all regions, Asia is posting the highest growth —particularly in China. There, according to a Frost & Sullivan study from 2004, the market for multi-speed drives will grow from $1.2 billion in 2004 to $1.9 billion in 2010. That’s more than 50 %. This growth is due to factors including rapid industrialization, large construction projects and a growing number of potential users from sectors such as heating, ventilation and air conditioning technology. In Europe, wind energy is driving strong growth in drives and generators. "Installations of wind turbines will increase by nearly 15 % per year on average until 2011," says Harald Thaler of Frost & Sullivan.

Market researchers of the ARC Advisory Group trace growth for high-performance drives back to increasing investments in production facilities. In the future, this growth will be driven by demand for user-friendly features and energy-efficient products. According to IMS Research, in the future, the market chances for electric drives will depend largely on whether they can make a contribution to reducing energy consumption.

Hybrid vehicles are a case in point. They are showing enormous rates of increase, although estimates vary regarding exact figures. In 2005, approximately 300,000 hybrid vehicles were produced worldwide; by 2010, that number should more than triple. Pricewaterhouse Coopers anticipates nearly one million units; more optimistic estimates assume 2.4 million. The most important markets will be North America and Asia. Toyota, the largest manufacturer by far, is planning to produce one million full hybrids in 2010.
                                                                                                                   Sylvia Trage