Pictures of the Future Spring 2006
Infrastructures – Facts and Forecasts
Magnetic Megacities
According to a UN-Habitat study, 2007 will mark an unprecedented moment in history: Half of the world’s population will be living in cities. The number of cities with populations over one million will increase from 300 to about 560 by 2015, when 350 million people will live in cities with more than ten million inhabitants. These changes will bring greater urbanization and economic growth, leading in turn to much stronger demand for modern infrastructures in areas including energy, water supply and transport.
In its World Energy Outlook 2005, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a more than 50-% increase in primary energy consumption worldwide by 2030, with developing countries accounting for more than two-thirds of the demand. Global energy consumption climbed by 4.3 % in 2004 alone, according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy. In absolute terms, says BP chief economist Peter Davies, this is "the biggest annual increase ever measured and the highest percentage growth rate since 1984." In China alone, demand for energy rose by over 15 % in 2004, and China now accounts for 13.6 % of total global energy consumption, second only to the U.S. (22.8 %). By way of comparison, Germany accounts for 3.2 % of total energy use, and the 25 EU countries account for a combined 16.8 %. It’s estimated that a $17-trillion cumulative investment will be needed in the energy sector between now and 2030, with half earmarked for developing and emerging countries. China’s generating capacity is expected to double by 2020, with 70 % from coal-fired plants. And Beijing intends to raise the share of renewable energy sources for power generation from today’s seven-percent level to 15 % by 2020.
Demand for water and wastewater infrastructure systems will also grow sharply over the next ten to 20 years. Some 2.4 billlion people live in areas with insufficient wastewater disposal systems, and 1.2 billion don’t have access to clean drinking water. The World Bank estimates a total global investment of $600 billion will be required in this area over the next decade. What’s more, outdated infrastructure in industrialized countries will have to be upgraded as well. According to the Swiss firm Sustainable Asset Management, the U.S. will have to invest more than $450 billion to update its infrastructure in the next 20 years.
Transport infrastructure also poses big challenges. Western Europe has 170 suburban rail networks and 36 subway systems. The International Union of Public Transport (UITP) expects this figure to climb by more than 50 % by 2025. Most existing subway systems will replace their train and signaling equipment, or switch to more flexible, efficient automated systems without drivers. Many big Asian cities still lack local public transport that can meet transportation needs, although Japan is an exception. A 2003 study by consultants SCI Verkehr GmbH shows annual market volume for subway trains in Asia could soon grow from $430 million to over $1 billion. Just how much this would benefit the environment and the economy is clear to see in the U.S., where motorists spend about 3.5 billion hours in traffic jams a year. High-speed trains will become more important for intercity transportation, particularly in Asia. Chinese rail operators alone have already ordered 200 such trains, to be delivered by 2009. In Japan, second-generation Shinkansen high-speed trains will replace current models, while Europe’s high-speed rail network will grow from the 2,500 km of the late 1990s to more than 9,000 km by 2015. SCI forecasts a $3-billion annual market volume for high-speed trains worldwide by 2010. The market for intelligent rail technologies for transport systems, electronics, sensors, computers, and communication technologies will also expand rapidly. In Europe alone, according to a Frost & Sullivan study, annual market volume for such technologies will grow from $1.1 billion per year to around $1.6 billion by 2011.
Sylvia Trage