Pictures of the Future Spring 2005
The Graying Society
When I’m 64…
…life may still be wonderful, according to a famous song by the Beatles. But that’s by no means a certainty. Our society has not yet fully adapted to the needs of a growing number of senior citizens. But that’s changing as more and more companies realize that it’s not difficult to design senior-friendly products.
A cordless phone for the whole family. Grandpa and his grandson can both operate a Siemens Gigaset E150 without any problems. The phone is based on the "Design for All" principle
Seventy-year-old Ellen Gorisch loves music, yet she’s baffled. The MP3 player on her desk is supposed to be able to store an incredible amount of 20,000 songs. "But how do I get the songs from my records into that thing?" she wonders as she leafs through the instruction book. The other senior citizens in the room are equally mystified, even though most of them—the youngest member of the 26-person team is 50, and the oldest is 95—are professional product testers. For years now, they have been testing electronic products at the Institute of Human Factors Engineering and Product Ergonomics at the Technical University of Berlin. Today, the organization is called the "Senior Research Group".
Ellen Gorisch calls herself a technophobe. Nonetheless, she uses a video recorder and checks bus schedules via SMS—which makes her an atypical representative of her age group. But that’s set to change. The 50+ generation will make up the majority of the population by 2040. The people who will become senior citizens over the next 20 years will have grown up with computers and DVD recorders and will know how to use them—or rather, should be able to use them as long as their vision and joints hold up.
In the past, the electronics industry reacted to the needs of seniors by creating "orthopedic assistants," complains Kai-Uwe Neth, director of the Senior Research Group, who heads two design offices in Berlin and Stuttgart and teaches ergonomics at the Technical University of Berlin. But according to Neth, senior citizens expect to be offered high-quality consumer products rather than walkers from medical supply stores. And they certainly don’t want to be treated as if they’re disabled.
The Merits of Simplicity
"Did I turn off the stove?" Questions like that tend to pop into people’s heads as soon as they’ve left the house. And that’s especially true for senior citizens, according to Gerhard Fuchs, contact person for senior-friendly design at Bosch and Siemens Hausgeräte (Home Appliances) GmbH (BSH). In response to such needs, BSH displayed a number of products designed to appeal to older or disabled persons at the RehaCare International trade fair at the end of 2004. For example, some appliances use Serve@Home technology to indicate their operative status on a display in the living room, a computer screen, or via SMS on a cell phone, so that you can check whether the stove is on even if you’re far from home. At BSH, the "Design for All" principle is part of the product development process. This involves, for example, determining how much regulating power a control knob should have or what kind of lettering would make an appliance easy to use for all age groups. The interdisciplinary cooperation of development teams is a key factor here, especially when contradictory demands have to be met. For example, hands-free controls are ideal for users with limited motoric abilities, but are useless for blind users, who need to touch the controls to check settings. Many of the solutions from BSH demonstrate that simple ideas are often the most useful. For instance:
An oven with a door that opens sideways may be more comfortable because the user does not have to bend over as much to reach the interior.
Control knobs that can be pushed in only when they’re in the "off " position, making them easy to "read" by touch.
A stove whose burners are arranged not in a square, but side by side (above), allows heavy pots to be pushed from one burner to another instead of being lifted. Because the stove is wide rather than deep, it can be set far back on the counter—a practical feature for households with small children—or moved forward to make cooking easier for people with back problems or weak hands.
A washing machine with a large, high-contrast display that indicates laundry programs and even spot-removing tips in text form (available in 17 languages).
But the big hit at RehaCare was the Easy-Store refrigerator (right), which has drawers instead of wire racks or glass shelves. "Everyone liked that, whether they were old, young or disabled," says Gerhard Fuchs. "It’s a fine example of Design for All."
Thanks to medical progress, there may be a difference of 10 to 20 years between an individual’s calendar age and how old he or she feels. Furthermore, older people are just as ready to learn and have fun as younger ones, but with advancing age they tend to look for easy operation and high quality in the goods they buy.
On top of all this, people who are over 50 have money. In the U.S., for instance, the quarter of the population in this age group has an annual personal income approaching one trillion dollars. In Germany, the Institute of Labor and Technology estimates that up to one million new jobs could be created if "senior citizens’ potential for consumption and purchasing could be more effectively activated and exploited." The economy will have to catch up with these demographics. After all, even though today only one in every five Germans is over 60, that figure will be one in four by 2020 and one in three by 2050. Horizons2020, a study commissioned by Siemens and carried out by the TNS Infratest business research institute, foresees that by 2020 the driving force of German society will not be the vitality of youth but the wisdom of old age.
Seniors Think Differently. How can this potential be activated? The answer is unclear. Even an expert like Neth admits that "Senior citizens think differently than we had assumed." In fact, he concludes, there’s no such thing as a typical senior citizen, which is why there’s no typical response to modern technology in this age group. The Senior Research Group came up with some surprising findings.
? For example, many senior citizens don’t use trial and error. A person who was punished as a child for playing with the radio may have the feeling that instruments can break if they aren’t operated correctly. That’s why many older people tend to follow user instructions precisely and give up if things go wrong. "I had to learn that things won’t break if you play around with them," says Ellen Gorisch.
? Some older people are not familiar with the "undo" function and don’t understand that you can climb up a menu tree as well as down through it. Others, who have used a typewriter all their lives, don’t understand the "delete" function. In fact, some seniors reach for the Tippex when they see a misspelled word on the screen. Many senior citizens need to learn the unfamiliar procedure of scrolling, because they believe that when a text disappears it’s gone forever.
? Older consumers tend to buy small cell phones in trendy designs. Here’s why: As a rule, they’re afraid of being stigmatized as being too old for such things. They’re also generally reluctant to buy replacement materials because that means additional costs that are difficult to estimate before hand.
On the basis of these experiences, Neth has concluded that designers of senior-friendly products generally ask the wrong questions, such as: "Are the keys big enough?" or, "Is the display contrast high enough?" Those are typical questions manufacturers ask when they survey seniors about their new products. Neth responds that older people don’t have fatter fingers and that high-contrast monitors are better for younger people as well. That realization has led to the principle of "Design for All." "If you design a good product for older people, you also include younger consumers. If you design a product only for younger people, you exclude older ones," is sage advice for product designers.
Senior citizens testing products. A spin in a driving simulator reveals the weaknesses of a cockpit design (left). Everyday household objects also often turn out to have limited utility for older people
Nevertheless, many companies have not understood these basic truths, according to Prof. Ernst Pöppel of Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich (see interview). "Dexterous young engineers often design things that show off their abilities, rather than things people need," he says. "They think in terms of pure technology and neglect the human element." Pöppel, who is 65, heads the Generation Research Program (GRP) in Bad Tölz, Germany, which develops senior-friendly products and researches the physiological and psychological characteristics of older people, such as their perception of time and the way they process sensory data. GRP researchers don’t use an "Age Explorer"—a heavy suit that slows down the wearer’s movements plus a helmet with a small window that restricts the wearer’s field of vision. Such suits are often rented by companies to show young product developers what kind of handicaps older people have to deal with. But Pöppel points out that the suit doesn’t really convey how an older person experiences the world, because an individual’s perceptual apparatus also changes over time.
The 40 researchers at the GRP, including a doctoral candidate who is over 60, are studying "anthropologically limiting conditions" and channeling their results into products. For example, they’ve discovered that people can only focus on objects located up to ten degrees to their sides. That’s why they want automakers to mount navigation devices where drivers can see them while looking at the street, rather than on the center console.
How Changing Demographics Will Shape Tomorrow’s Markets
(click in the image to get a larger one)
Just as the 18th century is linked with the French Revolution and the 19th is associated with industrialization, the 21st century may one day be associated with a very different kind of revolution: the reversal of the age pyramid. The number of old people is increasing, while the younger generations diminish. And that’s happening all over the world, though not at the same pace everywhere. Leading this trend are the Western countries and Japan, followed by China and Russia with a delay of two to three decades. The only exceptions are a few Asian countries and nearly all of sub-Saharan Africa.
This development is being driven by two mutually reinforcing trends. One of them is the progress being made in the health sector. Lower infant mortality, improved medical care and less physical labor have led to statistical increases in life expectancy. The number of layers in the population pyramid and the number of occupants in the uppermost layers are increasing. In the future, more age cohorts will be sharing the same timeframe—but that doesn’t necessarily mean that there will be more generations, i.e. more new children. That’s because there’s also been an increase in the age at which men and women form partnerships and decide to have children. That too is a worldwide trend, according to the U.N.’s World Fertility Report. Thus the length of time between generations is increasing.
The second trend that is reversing the population pyramid is the decreasing birthrate. The population pyramid will retain its shape only if women bear an average of 2.1 children each. However, birthrates are decreasing all over the world. There are many reasons for this phenomenon. The widespread use of contraceptives, growing prosperity and increasing numbers of working women are reducing birthrates. Meanwhile, factors such as good child care provisions for babies and infants counter this trend. Other key factors are the active population policies of some countries, such as China’s "one child" policy.
Children and grandchildren form the base of the population pyramid—which is crumbling in many countries
The consequences of this reversal of the population pyramid are far-reaching. The overall structure of the world’s population is being reshuffled, changing the rankings of different countries and continents as well as those of different ethnic groups within the same country—for example, in the U.S. According to U.N. population studies, Europe’s population will decrease by more than 120 million by 2050, while the total world population will increase by 3 billion in the same period. Some experts believe that societies with a younger average age are more innovative than those with older populations, assuming their educational systems are comparably effective. If that is true, demographic development would have a direct influence on the regional distribution of technological leadership and economic growth, and thus on the future global distribution of prosperity. Research institutions such as the McKinsey Global Institute are investigating whether, and to what extent, countries can compensate for the low birthrates of their native populations through immigration or increases in productivity. These investigations are leading to further questions, such as: What is the effect of a sharp decline in population on capital and real estate markets?
A more obvious result of the population pyramid reversal is the drastic deterioration in the numerical relationship between pension recipients and the working population. That in turn will weaken an important component of many state pension systems. In the future, supplementary private pensions will have to make up the difference. But that, in turn, will increase savings and decrease consumer spending. This and many other connections resulting from demographic changes have not yet been adequately investigated. But more and more people are becoming interested in this topic, as is demonstrated by the success of bestsellers such as The Methusaleh Plot by Frank Schirrmacher. After all, this is an entirely new phenomenon, and one in which history will not be able to guide us.
Sabine Saphörster
The GRP team is also using a driving simulator to find out where switches should be located so that senior citizens can easily reach them. All too often, they find that a cockpit has too many switches that are too far apart. Control systems with very large menus are also not suited for older people, says Pöppel. Be that as it may, these problems are likely to be around for a long time because our capacity for perceiving and reacting to the environment is firmly anchored in our genetic makeup.
On the other hand, automotive technology has the potential to make driving much easier for seniors. For instance, the GRP team has found that older drivers often need more than one second to fix their gaze on the right-hand side mirror. That’s why Pöppel suggests replacing the rear and side mirrors with cameras that transmit their images to a dashboard monitor. His team is also considering ways to reduce the number of interfaces in automobiles. In stressful situations, the cockpit would provide only those functions that are relevant. Stress would be measured by a sensor in the steering wheel that monitors the driver’s hand pressure. Adaptive systems of this kind are the wave of the future, according to Pöppel.
Designs for Young and Old. Siemens was one of the first companies to realize the significance of "Design for All." This approach has been applied, under other names, at BSH Bosch and Siemens Hausgeräte GmbH since the early 1990s (see box). The cell phone industry has taken longer to react. Earlier generations of cell phones had clear menus and could be easily operated by older people, but growing complexity and ever shorter product cycles mean that "Design for All" is facing increasing challenges.
At Siemens, that challenge is being met by Klaus-Peter Wegge (see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2003, Accessibility). Wegge, a computer specialist at C-LAB in Paderborn—a joint research institute operated by Siemens and the University of Paderborn—helps Siemens Groups, especially Communications, to implement the "Design for All" concept. For Wegge, who has been blind since his childhood, special products for disabled consumers are only a last resort if "Design for All" can’t come up with good products at an acceptable cost.
"Products for senior citizens should never be marketed as such," he cautions. Products advertised as special creations for older people are avoided by all consumer groups. Older people in particular feel stigmatized by them and refuse to buy them. By contrast, the first Siemens "Design for All" cordless phone, the Gigaset E150, was a resounding success. Its clear, functional design was developed with the needs of senior citizens in mind, but it’s obviously attractive to young people as well—and one of the reasons is that it’s not being advertised as a product for seniors. Germany’s federal working group for senior citizens’ organizations has discovered that it’s not cell phones and household appliances that cause senior citizens the biggest headaches—it’s unwieldy packaging, unclear labeling and technical jargon in instruction manuals.
And sometimes minor inconveniences can cause tremendous irritation—for everyone. Ellen Gorisch, for example, always buys her tickets for the Berlin public transportation system at ticket counters rather than from a machine. "The reason is very simple," she explains. "My coins always fall through."
Bernd Müller
"User-Friendly Products Are the Solution
Interview with Ernst Pöppel
Prof. Ernst Pöppel
(65) is Chairman of the Institute for Medical Psychology and Acting Chairman of the Human Studies Center at Ludwig-Maximilians-University in Munich. He heads the Generation Research Program in Bad Tölz, Germany, which conducts cross-generational basic research and develops innovative technologies for the 50+ generation.
Are the needs of the over-50 generation being neglected?
Pöppel: Yes, definitely. And yet the 50+ generation harbors tremendous potential. In Germany alone, 20 million senior citizens have purchasing power amounting to #700 billion euros but hardly anywhere to spend it, because there are few appropriate products around. Older people would like to buy high-tech products that they are able to use.
Do they need special products?
Pöppel: A company will never be successful if it manufactures products that are designed solely for senior citizens. We shouldn’t divide society into segments, because that makes people feel stigmatized, and of course we all want to have a sense of belonging. Younger people can also use products more effectively if they are designed to be user-friendly.
How can that be done?
Pöppel: Pöppel: Products should be designed in a barrier-free and integrative way so that they are appropriate for consumers aged between ten and 80. But they should be oriented toward the needs of the 50+ generation. If that isn’t done, the older generation is excluded. To date, aesthetic aspects have played a larger role than usability, and many engineers still expect users to adjust to technologies. But the opposite is true. Technologies have to be adjusted to users.
In what ways?
Pöppel: Pöppel: Technologies must be easy to grasp. A human being’s perceptual "window" for each moment comprises only two to three seconds. Within this time we can process information from a maximum of three sources. The brain processes information in analog fashion rather than digitally—in other words, it deals with norm values rather than numbers. When we look at the speedometer, we don’t look at the numbers but at the position of the dial. From a perceptual physiology point of view, many of the navigation systems in our cars are incorrectly positioned. They’re far outside the driver’s angle of vision. If something is more than 10 ° off to the side, I need 0.4 s to focus on it. And that can create a risky situation. Every project designer ought to be aware of such connections.
What’s the solution?
Pöppel: Two examples would be voice activation and intuitive technologies for Internet applications, which help users quickly find what they’re looking for. Everyone can benefit from these technologies—young people as well as those with age-related disabilities. In general, only information relevant to the situation at hand should be displayed.
Is a young person’s perception different from an older person’s?
Pöppel: The speed at which the brain processes information slows down in the course of a lifetime, diminishing by up to 50 % in a healthy senior citizen. Decision-making processes slow down too, and that often leads to misunderstandings because people frequently equate speedy decision-making with intelligence. As a result, older people’s abilities are often underestimated. But this attitude is wrong. In a healthy human being, qualitative intelligence, also known as crystalline intelligence, remains constant up to the age of about 100.
What’s the 50+ generation like?
Pöppel: It’s not at all homogeneous. In fact, it shows a larger range of variation than the group of 20-to-40-year-olds. When we retire, we no longer have to live according to other people’s rules. We have the time to discover our own needs and try out new things. Even as a pensioner you can’t just play golf every day. If a company wants to be successful, it has to cater to these individual needs, for example by personalizing its products.Asia , for example?Pöppel: In contrast to central Europe, seniors in Asia are not regarded as disabled, but are respected. This can be seen in the fact that Asian products are user-friendly, a feature that is given high priority in the Far East. That may explain why older people in Asia are more open to high-tech products—a situation that benefits the entire society.
You’re over 50 yourself. What’s your attitude to high-tech products?
Pöppel: I’d like to see cell phones with a really big display, for instance. If I could have that I wouldn’t mind the cell phone being bigger and heavier. In general, I own only things that are really useful. I do try to keep abreast of the latest developments, though, and I update the computers I use at the office. In many cases, the multitude of functions remains a mystery to me at first, but fortunately I have smart colleagues, including some younger ones.
Interview by Florian Martini