Pictures of the Future Spring 2005
Remote Services – Facts and Forecasts
Networks: Driving Growth in Remote Services
The market for remote maintenance and related services will grow rapidly over the next few years. According to an analysis conducted by the Gartner Group, the annual market volume of industrial applications for such services will increase by approximately 21 % between now and 2010, from $13.7 billion to $35.7 billion (see chart). This development will be driven primarily by demand for IT services such as support for configuration and software updating, security services for eliminating security gaps, and diagnosis and hotline support for fault analyses.
According to a study conducted by Switzerland’s Intechno-Consulting, in 2003, the global market for all types of services relating to process technology for the construction of industrial facilities (i.e. feasibility studies, project management, purchasing and financing) will increase from $42.6 billion in 2000 to more than $70 billion by 2010. "Sales from such services can create additional profitable business that remains unaffected by economic downturns," says Horst Meier, a professor for Production Systems at the University of Bochum, Germany. Studies conducted by the German Engineering Federation (VDMA) show that machine manufacturers generate 25 % of their sales through services, on average.
Market volume for remote vehicle diagnostic systems in Europe:1 billion euros by 2005
Remote vehicle diagnostics is becoming increasingly important (left, source: Frost & Sullivan, 2002). The market for industrial remote services applications (right) is already worth billions, with about 20 % accounted for by hardware and software and 72 % by remote services centers (source: Gartner Group, CT SM)
Global industrial remote services market: A $36 billion business by 2010
Fifty Billion Voices. Remote services can be efficiently used only if machines and facilities are able to communicate with one another via fixed-line, mobile or satellite networks. According to Forrester Research, in 2005 more data will be exchanged between machines than between people, with machine-to-machine (M2M) data exchange expected to be 30 times greater than the exchange between people by 2020. And that shouldn’t be surprising. There are about 50 billion machines equipped with micro-controllers and monitoring and control units—and only six billion people. Wireless M2M communication in particular is booming (see RFID). "Mobile communications can transform practically anything into a networked object," says José Costa e Silva, head of Wireless Modules at Siemens Communications. In 2003 there were slightly less than 20 million wireless M2M connections worldwide, including meters, alarm systems, vending machines, and track’n’trace modules. But there will be more than 300 million by 2008, according to a 2004 study conducted by e-principles. The story is similar when it comes to wireless modules. Here, Silva sees high growth rates—already at 34 % per annum—based on a 500 million euro market in 2004. But that market is expected to reach 1.75 bn. € by 2008. And with a 37 % share, Siemens is the worldwide leader in this market. Furthermore, according to Allied Business Intelligence (ABI), the total world volume for M2M equipment and services will reach approximately $20 billion by 2008.
Thirty Million Networked Homes. According to a market study conducted by Frost & Sullivan in 2002, sales of remote vehicle diagnostic systems in Europe will increase from approximately 180 mill. € in 2001 to 1.88 bn. € in 2009 (graph). And a 2002 analysis conducted by market researchers from Datamonitor predicts that nearly 30 million European households will be networked by the end of 2005. Such a development would mean the share of European households thus equipped will have grown from less than 5 % to nearly 20 % in only three years.
Information released by the European Commission indicates electronic health services such as Internet health checks and online diagnostics and treatments could develop into the third-largest health care segment after pharmaceuticals and medical technology systems (see Telemedicine). The total European market volume for this segment is estimated to be 11 bn. €, with forecasts indicating it will account for 5 % of all health care expenditures by 2010. Under optimal development conditions, the European market volume for telemedicine applications such as home ECGs, ultrasound examinations and eye telescreenings could increase from more than 72 mill. € in 2003 to 1.5 bn.€ in 2011, according to a 2004 study by Frost & Sullivan. That would amount to an annual growth rate of 42 %.
Sylvia Trage