MegaCities – Facts and Forecasts
The Value of E-Government
E-government is on the agenda of nearly every public sector agency around the globe. But while governments recognize its potential advantages, quantifying its economic and social value is just getting started. All but the poorest of countries have recognized the importance of e-government—using information and communications technology to transact government business online. The OECD has identified a range of reasons why local and national governments need to take e-government seriously. In its 2003 policy brief "The e-government Imperative," the OECD cites improving operational efficiency, improved customer focus, increasing openness and trust in government, and helping advance government reform programs. "Cities will need to deliver more services in a better, more cost-effective manner," says Jan Duffy, group vice president of solutions research at International Data Corp (IDC).
Whereas the E-Government Readiness Index measures online generic availability of information and services in quantitative terms, the E-Participation Index assesses how relevant and useful these features are with respect to people’s ability to engage in dialogue with their government and to participate in the political process as citizens.
Although saving transaction costs by introducing Internet-based applications is often perceived as a key reason for e-government, few governments rank saving money as their top priority. A 2003 survey of 22 countries conducted by management consultancy Accenture concluded that only 51% of governments considered "pressure to reduce costs" as an important reason for developing online services. That compares to 93 % who listed improving customer satisfaction and 83 % who cited customer demands for new and better services. Few are in the position to quantify how much they save via e-government. "There is no standard framework for e-government measurement," says Duffy. Therefore, IDC and the OECD are conducting quantitative studies on the potential cost savings and the social contribution of e-government.
So which countries are the most "e-government ready"? One of the most comprehensive rankings is that of the UN, which assessed 191 countries to derive a "global e-government readiness ranking" (see chart). The results point to a significant digital divide: the top 25 countries have rankings that range 60 to 200 percent higher than those of the remaining countries. The ranking is derived by assessing the aptitude of each government to use e-government as a tool, its telecom infrastructure and level of public education, as well as the degree to which it opens itself to interaction with its citizens.
Flocking to the Cities
According to the UN, most population growth over the next 30 years will take place in urban regions. Indeed, every day, cities will acquire 180,000 residents through either birth or immigration. By 2007, for example, the number of people living in urban and rural regions will be the same for the first time. This trend is particularly evident in China. Between 1950 and 1980, the rural population rose from 0.5 to 0.8 billion. Having reached its highest level—0.86 billion—in 1995, it has since fallen back to the 1980 level. Population growth in China’s cities, however, has continued unabated. It increased# from around 80 million in 1950 to 200 million in 1980, and currently stands at some 0.5 billion. According to studies conducted by Tsinghua University in Beijing, every second person in China will live in a city by 2030. This degree of urbanization, however, is still significantly below that of the U.S. and Japan (77 and 79 % respectively in 2000) as well as Germany (87.5 %). Here are some additional facts about urban development (source: www.unchs.org):
- Only 2 % of people lived in cities in 1800.
- This rose to 30 % in 1950 and 47 % in 2000
- and is set to reach 60 % by 2030.
- There will be a further two billion city-dwellers by 2030. In less-developed countries, the urban population will rise from 1.9 billion (the level reached in 2000) to 3.9 billion, whereas the increase in developed countries will be minimal—from 900 million in 2000 to around one billion in 2030.
In 1950, there was only one megacity in the world: New York City (12.3 million inhabitants). By 2015 there will be 23
Another point the experts agree on is that implementing e-government involves different levels, from basic online services to advanced interaction with users. "Administrations are increasingly applying the principles of customer relationship management as a way to reorganize online service delivery," notes Accenture. Canada is one country that has grasped this. Ranked number one by Accenture for e-government maturity and sixth in the UN ranking, the Canadian government defines its own effort, Government Online, as seeking to "become the government most connected to its citizens.” The country is investing some CAND$880 million to put most of its government services online by 2005. On the Canada website www.canada.gc.ca), users can conduct a wide variety of transactions: filling out an application for unemployment benefits, lodging a complaint with the Canadian Transportation Agency, or even tracing an ancestor via the National Archives. They can also access complete online directories of most government employees.
Online usage rates continue to be a challenge, however. A Finnish public sector portal www.suomi.fi) launched in April 2002 has proved somewhat disappointing in its usage, according to Ministry of Finance CIO Olavi Köngäs. New services are still being launched to make the site more attractive, such as a "share your view" discussion forum. The portal also has built-in capabilities for authentication and digital signature. Köngäs says that government agencies must become more proficient at selling users on the idea of online transactions. "We are not yet used to marketing to our customers," he says.
Mary Lisbeth D'Amico