Scenario 2015

July 2015: Harold Kuhn must identify a deadly virus—as fast as possible.

A knowledge manager of the future gets a rush job. A fatal viral disease has broken out, and he has to determine how the pathogen has mutated. The information is vitally important for the development of a vaccine. A computer program that organizes viruses according to their genotype and other criteria—making it possible to compare them — provides part of the answer. Memex, a multimedia information desk that provides links to experts around the world, also helps

Well, Ben, how are you doing with your geometry homework?" asks Harold, calling to his son in the next room. "All right, Dad. I can use the new 3D program my software agent found on the Internet to rotate conic sections in space," answers the 14-year-old from behind his virtual-reality glasses. "I’m doing a homework problem with my Canadian study partner." "Great," says Harold, turning to his memex, an interactive desktop with a large touch-screen display, several holograph projectors and a broadband Internet connection.

"What are you working on, Dad?" "It’s a corporate takeover," answers Harold, who is a successful freelance knowledge manager. "Nanosoft wants to take over a competitor, and I’m supposed to make sure the knowledge there isn’t lost. It’s a lot of routine stuff. Recording data, everything from projects finished a long time ago to..." "Dad, OK, OK," says Ben. "Then I have to map out the organizational structure of the company in detail," Harold goes on proudly at a somewhat higher volume. "I have to go through the weblogs of employees—I have software tools for that on my memex, and they do it almost automatically." "Dad, please!" "But it really gets exciting when I can start interpreting the results of the data mining. That allows me to decide which experts are best suited for which subjects. And then..."

"Dad, what’s that flashing red light behind you?" Ben calls. Harold spins around, noticing the signal for an incoming message. Dr. Mel Robinson’s hologram hovers above the desktop. Mel is an old acquaintance, a biochemist at the World Health Organization, and Harold has done some tricky investigations for him over the years.

"Hi, Harold," Mel pants. "Turn on CNN. There’s an epidemic in Panama, thousands are already infected. The entire Colón free trade zone is under quarantine, and the Panama Canal has been closed since last night. Are you listening?

Harold tears himself away from the description of his work he had planned for his son. "Harold!" Mel repeats "Can you spare some time? This is an emergency!" Harold stares at the wall display in disbelief, with its flickering images of people in masks carrying lifeless bodies across dusty suburban streets. The reporter is talking about a panic. "What should I do?" Harold asks.

"We’re pretty sure it’s a hemorrhagic fever. Early analyses indicate that it’s something like Ebola, but we don’t know how it’s mutated," rasps Mel, a note of irritation in his voice. "We suspect it started with one of those damn local bat species down there, you know, from that Portobelo nature reserve. Damn, we told them..."

"Mel, get to the point. What can I do to give you a hand?" says Harold, suddenly aware of the publicity this could bring him. "Well, Harold, you’re a cluster expert. Find out every possible thing you can about the Ebola mutations, so we can develop a vaccine. I’ll send you a link to our database. I want you to analyze all the hemorrhagic viruses in it; there are several million varieties, not to mention the artificial ones."

"When do you need the results?" "Yesterday," says Mel. "Just get on it, and I’ll try to find an eyewitness who lived through the 1976 ebola outbreak in what they used to call Zaire. I’ve heard there’s a tribe down there that’s supposed to be immune."

"And where do you expect that to get us?" asks Harold. "If we can come up with a blood sample there, that may help us," Mel answers. "A mutation similar to this Panama virus would be good enough as a model for a vaccine. You’ll find everything we know about the new virus in the database."

Mel’s hologram disappears. Harold loads the database and begins searching for information about the Panama virus. To accelerate the search, he limits it to parameters associated with mutations, and ensures that the data sets are compatible with one another—one of the major problems with scientific documentation. Then he starts up the cluster program, which scans all registered viruses for similarities with the Panama type, based on their appearance, genotype and other criteria, such as the symptoms they have caused. Now it’s just a question of time.

Gradually, the program divides the viruses into groups, and the software displays the clusters in a hologram. The closer two viruses are to each other, the more similar they are. Harold has highlighted the values for the Panama virus in color. Suddenly two variants show up right next to it. "Search Completed," the system tells him. Working as rapidly as possible, he examines all the characteristics of the viruses. But he soon notices that the first virus mutation is a dead end—a patented experimental result that could never have affected a bat. But the second virus looks like a winner. The program checks it and displays the addresses of researchers familiar with it.

A moment later Harold contacts Mel. "Got something for you. Looks like we’ve found it," he says. You’ll have it in a sec." "Great!" says Mel. "And I’ve found a retired specialist in tropical medicine who took blood samples back then in Zaire. Miracle he’s still alive. Together with your data, that should do the trick. Our labs are eager to get started. Many thanks, till next time." "OK, if my analysis turns up anything else, I’ll be in touch," says Harold.

Minutes later, while Harold is still basking in the glow of his success, a CNN reporter flickers on the wall display saying, "The World Health Organization has just reported that it has identified the pathogen and is now developing a vaccine. There is a chance, however..."

"Ben" Harold calls, "As I was saying..."

Norbert Aschenbrenner

Knowlege Highlights

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Network communitiesVirtual teams on the Internet will have more knowledge than the combined knowledge of their members   more

Google: 200 million queries per day"We want to make our search engine even smarter," says Google’s Chief Technology Officer, Craig Silverstein   more

Lifelong learningModern communications technologies like telelearning and e-learning allow customized continuing education   more

Life is a quiz"Games of knowledge and mental skill help us in an over-informed world," says Eckhard Freise, the first German winner of Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?   more