Pictures of the Future Interview
The Process of Picturing the Future
Interview with Claus Weyrich and Bernd Kolpatzik
The first edition of Pictures of the Future introduced Siemens' method of visualizing the future to draw up a comprehensive overview of future technological developments. The process has served to identify the most important trends in the company's business areas. What's the next step?
Prof. Claus Weyrich, 58, is a Member of the Managing Board of Siemens AG and head of Corporate Technology. With 1,800 employees throughout the world, his department is responsible for securing the future technological success of the company
Weyrich: Ultimately, we're using the pictures-of-the-future technique to pursue three basic goals. First of all, we want to gain an overview of the technologies that will play a major role in the futurein other words, those that will generate future market growth, those that will have a multiple impact in a range of different market sectors, and those that will lead to significant technological breakthroughs. Our second objective is to systematically track down new business opportunities. Finally, we want to communicate to people both inside and outside the company that Siemens is a visionary and innovative organization. In my opinion, this magazine has an important role to play in this process.
How do you actually go about creating a "picture of the future"?
Kolpatzik: We set up a team comprising specialists from Corporate Technology and the relevant operative businesses. At the beginning, we also invite along external experts to share their knowledge and experience. That includes not only people from universities and institutes, but also experts from rival companies, and customers as well. Together, we work out a variety of scenarios along with the technologies and business opportunities they imply and the type of action they require. This process takes around three to four months.
Can you point to examples of new business opportunities that have been identified in this way?
Kolpatzik: Information and communications have very much proved to be multiple impact technologies. Right now, for example, we're looking at the kinds of technologies the media will require in the future, such as information networks and technology that enables content tailored to a specific person or situation to be sent to mobile terminals. Here, the key issues are things like personal newspapers, voice portals, UMTS and the generation-after-next mobile networks. Another major synergy focus is the field of sensorics, which is important for automation and transportation systems as well as many other areas. Imagine, for example, a cell phone with an acceleration sensor that takes its surroundings into account. When it is in motionin a shopping bag, for exampleit rings with a louder tone, and when it is motionlesson the table of a restaurant, for instanceit only vibrates or gives off a visual signal.
Do these studies produce something like a Top 10 list of the most important technological fields for Siemens?
Weyrich: Developing technology strategies is a very complex process. A technology can be a driving force in one area of business, for example, and merely play a supporting role in another. It's important to keep an eye on the overall business picture and to ask yourself the following questions: What kind of market growth is that technology going to generate? How might the business develop? How attractive is it for Siemens? Do we possess expertise or the appropriate know-how in this field? Can the technology be exploited in several business areas? And so on. But as you see, there's no such thing as a simple ranking of technologies.
What then are the big advantages of this new technique?
Weyrich: The pictures of the future are more than just a collection of ideas and visions. They also represent a systematic process that quickly produces market forecastsas well as anticipating major new trends, identifying the technologies that underlie them, and generating ideas for new business opportunities. And most importantly, this process shows us how to achieve these future goals from our current point in time. In other words, it tells us what we have to do. In the end, it's not really so important whether these forecasts actually turn out to be completely accurate. The world of technology is just too dynamic and sometimes too turbulent for that. As is often the case, it's not so much the destination that counts as the journey toward it. The process itself is the essential thing.
Kolpatzik: When we compare notes with other companies, we see again and again just how pragmatic and targeted this tool is.
Weyrich: There are many ways of conducting forward planning. The Delphi method, for example, is very popular and has often been used for studies of the future. We also use the results of Delphi surveys for our pictures of the future. In addition, however, we incorporate extrapolations from our current business operations as well as retropolations from future scenarios. The pictures-of-the-future approach is thereforeand this is essentially its big advantagea very holistic process. Another major benefit is that it paintsas the name suggestsa picture of the future that shows people what it will be like to live in the networked world of tomorrow. As such, the pictures appeal to people on an emotional level.
Is this visual-emotional approach well received?
Weyrich: Yes. With its pictures-of-the-future approach, Siemens has found a way of clearly articulating its vision of the future and initiating a dialog on the associated issues with both its customers and the public at large.
Yet there must still be room for improvement. What's next on the agenda?
Dr. Bernd Kolpatzik, 36, is head of the Information, Communications and Automation strategy team at Corporate Technology. His responsibilities include drawing up pictures of the future for the Information and Communications, and the Automation and Control business areas. Kolpatzik's team works with a network of internal and external partners. It suggests courses of action and makes preparations for the implementation of corresponding measures at the company
Kolpatzik: Naturally, we're learning all the timehow to make the process as efficient as possible, for example, or how to adjust the technique and focus it on concrete business areas. Those are areas we're going to be concentrating on in the future. And in response to many requests, the strategy teams are now applying this approach to additional areas, such as materials and Bosch-Siemens household appliances. Similarly, we're now looking for synergy potential between the company's business areasin the field of sensorics, for example. And in certain areas we're also increasing the level of detail of existing pictures of the future. Finally, we're refining the technique and looking at whether it's possible to combine several pictures of the future in order to develop an overarching technology strategyin the services sector, for example.
Weyrich: At the same time, it's important that the pictures of the future for specific business areas are kept permanently up-todate. It's a bit like the artist who spins plates in the circus: He or she has to keep on giving them a turn so that none of them fall down. In other words, pictures of the future has to become a systematic and rigorously implemented process, because that's the only way that it will become an integral part of the culture of innovation at Siemens. We've already made a great deal of progress here. But it's also important not to overburden the process with too many expectations. Without a doubt, it's a very useful tool in the innovation process. Yet turning the results into business success involves a lot more: top technological performance, for example, as well as a very strong patent portfolio, efficient project management and, last but not least, world-class people. At the end of the day, they're the ones who have to go out there and score a market success!
Interview conducted by Ulrich Eberl