Mobile Communications Applications
Plugging Customers into the Multimedia Picture
When it comes to the success of the new mobile communications networks, the biggest uncertainty remains the customer. Which applications will be attractive enough to persuade users to part with their money? Industry studies and experts are focusing on multimedia messaging, entertainment, localized and personalized services, and business applications.
Location-based services and the mobile office (below) are among the most attractive applications for tomorrow's mobile networks
The biggest challenge in planning tomorrow's multimedia mobile communications has nothing to do with technical issuesas UMTS pilot projects on the Isle of Man and other locations or a look at Japan clearly demonstrate. Nor has it anything to do with the fact that the terminals required are still few and far between. Such teething troubles might perhaps delay the launch of the technology, but they certainly won't prevent it. The biggest uncertainty for network operators, hardware manufacturers, service providers and analysts is the customer. After all, the volume of demand will determine whether or not the market flourishes or fizzles. A repeat of the rather muted response to WAP services is something that the industry is anxious to avoid.
So the big question remains, what kind of UMTS applications are likely to appeal to tomorrow's customers? "We most definitely won't see the emergence of one single killer application," says Bernd Eylert, chairman of the UMTS Forum in London. "Cell phone users will in fact enjoy a whole cocktail of multimedia services that are very precisely tailored to individual needs."
Source: Booz Allen Hamilton Study, October 2001, et.al.
Paul Stein, director of Roke Manor ResearchSiemens' research and development center in Britain, where many UMTS innovations first saw the light of dayis also very much convinced that multimedia mobile communications will be a success. "UMTS has such enormous potential because it actually combines three crucial technological capabilities: high data transfer rates, the Internet, and technology that determines the whereabouts of a cell phone and then provides location-based information directly to the user," he says.
m.traction: A Network of Unlimited Possibilities
Solutions, a business unit at Siemens Information and Communication Mobile, develops solutions and platforms for the mobile communications networks of today and tomorrow. "We exploit the combined expertise of Siemens to provide our customers with complete solutions," explains Volker Ziegler, who heads the unit. A crucial issue, according to Ziegler, is that of billing. "You have to offer convincing answers here if you want to hold your own in this market," he says. This means, for example, that customers should only be charged when transmission of, say, a video has been successfully completedand not if it is interrupted through no fault of their own. At the CeBIT computer show in March 2002, Siemens showcased a whole range of new applications from the m.traction line, some of which have been developed together with business partners.
m.traction City on Air: An electronic city guide featuring location-based services with information on movie theaters, restaurants and friends in the vicinity.
m.traction 3G shopping: Purchasing goods with a cell phone featuring a special interface for small displays.
m.traction 3G Mail: A multimedia messaging solution featuring e-mails with color pictures, video clips and music files, to which the recipient can add comments in multimedia form and then forward them to someone else.
m.traction 3G Chat: Chat rooms in which visitors are represented by avatarssmall, animated figures that can make facial expressions and other gestures. The terminal converts text messages into speech.
m.traction HotStreams: A multimedia streaming solution with interactive capability. The service can be used to download video from a soccer match as well as movie clips, news items or educational material. Clickable display elements take the user directly to Web links, ordering opportunities, or even stock quotes.
m.traction Gaming: Interactive games played by two cell phone userse.g. soccer or chess. This also functions on different terminals. One player might see a chessboard on the display, while the other, who doesn't have a cell phone with video capability, would receive the move via SMS.
New m.traction services are also being developed all the time for professional applications such as project, sales, maintenance and fleet management.
According to estimates by analysts of the ACR Group, Dataquest and others, the global market volume for mobile data services is expected to be as high as 10 billion euros in 2004.
The Technology Forecast 2001 to 2003, produced by corporate consultants PricewaterhouseCoopers, also counters speculation that the third generation of mobile communications will fail to appeal to customers. Manfred Briede, PricewaterhouseCoopers' expert for mobile business, is confident. "You can stimulate consumer demand on the mobile communications market just as you can in other sectors. The automotive industry produces faster and more comfortable cars, and suddenly customers want them. UMTS will make a range of services faster and more convenient, and consumers will be happy to make the switch," he predicts.
Rob Conway, CEO of the GSM Association, explains what such services might be. "The SMS boom clearly demonstrates that services based on an open platformin other words, those that are available in all networks and with all terminalsare highly attractive. And the same is true for services that are easy to understand and easy to operate, as well as services that are tailored to a person's needs, and which feature useful and varied content," he says. All in all, international studies and experts tend to agree that the following trends will play a central role (see graphic above).
Trend 1: Symbol of a New Lifestyle
"UMTS makes the Internet mobile," is the simple but striking message of many advertising campaigns. Be that as it may, tomorrow's UMTS users are unlikely to be downloading the kind of Web pages featured on today's Internet. Given the small format of the terminal display, the emphasis will probably fall on pure information, although this will be enriched with images, sound and even video clips. While cell phone users are likely to spend comparatively short periods of time on the Internet, they will tend to call up information several times during the day. The key issue here will be customized services. In the future, users will have their own personal portals that are tailored to their precise needs.
Experts identify two main sources of growth in the market for multimedia mobile communications: professional users and, above all, the younger generation. "The multimedia cell phone will become the medium of choice for young people; it will be a status symbol as well as the expression of a new lifestyle," predicts Shum Shingh, senior analyst at Durlacher Research in London. It's a view also confirmed by several surveys. A market research study by the Taylor Nelson Sofres Group indicates that the typical consumer with a high level of interest in UMTS cell phones is male, under 35 years of age, and a cell phone and Internet user. Correspondingly, experts predict that the most successful applications will be those tailored to this groupservices that provide entertainment and connect people. In particular, operators of Multimedia Messaging Services (MMS)a further development of the popular SMSwill be looking to gain high revenues. While SMS is used to send simple text messages, MMSand, to a lesser extent, its predecessor EMS (Enhanced Messaging Services) as well transmits messages of practically unlimited length and with picture and sound attachments, just like an e-mail sent from a PC. The lifestyle theme also covers music and gameswhich users can download from the Internet onto a mobile terminal and also play interactively with other cell phone usersas well as animated chat rooms. The latter involve the use of animated figures that represent the cell phone user in a virtual chat forum and utilize a variety of facial and bodily gestures. Watching videos or live broadcasts, on the other hand, will probably remain a niche market for a while, given the small size of the displays currently used and the high cost of transmitting the large volume of data involved. What's likely to prove more practical, however, will be short trailers for advertising the latest movies or live action videos from major soccer matches.
Tomorrow's mobile communications will ensure that users have constant access to the information they want and need, and that means news services are set to play a key role. Here, important items for specific users will have to be filtered out from a flood of new information. Once again, personalization will be a crucial factor. For example, future users might employ a so-called software agent to produce a personalized electronic newspaper (see article on agent technology in Pictures of the Future, Fall 2001). One customer would then receive all the latest sports news every morning, while another would be sent local news and a horoscope, and still another all the latest stock market and business news.
Trend 2: Services on the Move
The cell phone is set to become an important travel companion for people on the move. Location-based services will provide customers with information tailored to wherever they happen to be. In unfamiliar cities, for example, tourists will be able to find a whole range of handy tips. How do I get to the beach from here? Where's the cheapest hotel? Are any of my friends in this part of town? One option would be to present this information on cell phone displays in the form of a map with comments.
The cell phone of the future will also be able to act as a tourist guide and provide sightseeing tips for particular areas. And for the businessperson looking for a place to eat in an unfamiliar city? No problem. The cell phone will know its user's current whereabouts and will search for a nearby restaurant before guiding the user to the next available parking space. For analysts from the Durlacher Research Group, such services have a promising future, particularly for users in big cities.
At the same time, such location-based services might involve a whole range of further applications and business models. For example, customized traffic information and rerouting recommendations could help users to avoid traffic jams. Alternatively, the transmission of positional data when making an emergency call could help to save the lives of victims of accidents or illness.
Chat participants in virtual rooms take on the identities of fantasy figures
Trend 3: The Mobile Office
Business travelers and employees in the field will also profit from the high data transfer rates of the new mobile communications technology. For these people, the most important companion may well turn out to be a personal digital assistant or a notebook. In the future, it will be possible to call up company networks via mobile Internet access, enabling users to download large databases or presentations from anywhere in the world. And when extremely high data transfer rates are required, business travelers will also have W-LANs at their disposal in hot spotsplaces like hotels, trade fair venues or airports (see article UMTS and More). Such business applications will require adequate security to protect company networks from unauthorized use or manipulation. The same applies to finance applicationssuch as bank and stock market transactionsand shopping via cell phone. Before such services can become successful, they will have to gain the user's trust. Less problematic, on the other hand, will be the use of cell phones to pay out small amounts of moneyfor example, at vending machines or for purchasing tickets in local public transit systems (see articles on electronic money in Pictures of the Future, Fall 2001).
Trend 4: The Big Question
In principle, there is relative agreement on the major trends. "UMTS will establish a new platform for the mobile information, entertainment and consumer society," predicts Theo Kitz, analyst at Merck Finck&Co bank. As SMS has shown, the market could develop an unexpected momentum of its own and generate a range of completely new services. A few years ago, for instance, when SMS was already technologically feasible, no one would have predicted that a billion text messages would be sent every daya service that now accounts for between 10 and 20 % of total revenues. As such, it would take a courageous analyst to exclude the possibility of something similar happening in the multimedia mobile communications industry.
Sebastian Moser / Ulrich Eberl