Pictures of the Future    Fall 2007

New Social Network

Those who have found the rapid development of communications technology over the past few years to be breathtaking won’t be getting much of a breather over the next ten years. The number of Internet users around the world is expected to rise from the current one billion to five billion by 2015 ( Facts and Forecasts). Most of this growth will be fueled by mobile Web-enabled devices. As a result, data traffic is expected to increase by a factor of 100. Whether it’s cell phones or the Internet, at home or at work—seamless communication has become a permanent part of our lives, and data transmission routes are becoming as much of a basic need as the lines that bring electricity to our homes. Transmission technologies that use much higher bandwidths than ever before are opening up new possibilities not only for social interaction in near-real networked worlds, but also for forums that allow images, music, and videos to be exchanged in high quality while on the move. Devices and systems that are still separate today, such as TV, the Internet, wireless networks, fixed-line networks, the office, and industrial facilities, are converging.

Communication systems have always played a key role at Siemens. "Around half of our total R&D expenditure goes to software, which basically means communication applications," says Prof. Hartmut Raffler, head of Information and Communications at Siemens Corporate Technology (CT). "All Siemens business areas—from Automation and Control to Power and Medical—are permeated by communications technology. After all, our products are not isolated solutions; they’re all linked via networks." Since April 2007, the expertise for fixed-line and mobile network technology has been concentrated not only at CT but also at Nokia Siemens Networks (see  Nokia Siemens Networks). The establishment of Nokia Siemens Networks was Siemens’ reaction to growing consolidation, the idea being that the joint venture would enable the company to maintain its strong market position in communications.

"We work with Nokia Siemens Networks in order to make its new technologies available to our business areas," says Raffler. "It’s very important for us to have close contact with this technological pioneer, and to Siemens Enterprise Communications (SEN), which offers communication solutions for businesses."

Peer-to-peer networks offer an example of the effectiveness of this setup. Such networks allow computers to link up with one another independently of a central server. SEN used this technology to develop a telephone system in which terminals plugged into a fixed-line jack automatically join together in a network (see Limitless Availability). "This principle could also end up having a major impact on the energy technology sector," Raffler says. "In the future, we’ll be seeing many types of small power generation facilities, and these will have to be linked together in intelligent systems that enable them to communicate with one another. Peer-to-peer networks offer an ideal solution." ( Networked Power)

Evolution, not Revolution. Although communications technology is developing rapidly, we are unlikely to experience major surprises. "There won’t be a revolution in wireless systems over the next few years," says Torsten Gerpott, a professor of Telecommunications Management at the University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany. "What you will see will be evolution in areas such as data transmission capacity." The fastest theoretically possible commercial wireless connection today (UMTS with the HSDPA extension) achieves a transfer rate of 14.4 Mbit/s. However, experts believe this figure will increase to 200 Mbit/s by 2015, which is around 12 times more than the rate managed by today’s most powerful DSL connections in the fixed-line network. Siemens has already achieved a data transfer rate of 1 Gbit/s under lab conditions.

Bandwidths in the Internet will also increase. Nokia Siemens Networks is the leader in glass fiber technology, and CT is currently conducting research into polymer fibers that can transfer data at a rate of one Gbit/s. In just a few years, backbone applications between servers will use the Ethernet format to achieve a transfer rate of 100 Gbit/s—ten times higher than the norm today. Nevertheless, the Internet’s "volatile youthful phase has come to an end. Now it’s becoming mature, so to speak," says Gerpott.

In other words, we shouldn’t expect completely new technologies to hit the market; instead, we’ll be seeing new applications that will improve everyday life. One of the buzzwords here is Web 2.0—web sites where users can chat and interact. Wikipedia, the Internet lexicon, is a prominent example. "This is a trend that just about everyone is picking up on," says Stefan Jenzowsky of Trommsdorff und Drüner, a media consulting agency. "For example, the share of MySpace profiles accounted for by 12 – 17-year-olds is falling sharply because the 35 – 55 age group is now the largest."

Web 2.0 also makes possible customized services such as Pandora Internet radio, which offers music precisely tailored to its members’ personal preferences after these have been determined during a "training phase" in which users rate various songs. "The software then suggests similar songs designed to please the user that he or she would not normally think of," Jenzowsky explains. Such services can help Internet users handle the huge flow of information on the Web. "A key aspect here is the ability to make selections among the abundance of offerings on the Web," says Dr. Manfred Langen, a knowledge management expert at CT. "With all the blogs and other social software applications out there, you really need to be media savvy to keep things in perspective." CT is therefore working on projects geared toward a more clearly arranged online world. The Theseus project, for example, which is being funded by the German Ministry of Economics, seeks to develop and test the basic technologies and technical standards required for obtaining information in a targeted manner from sources such as Web databases. The plan here is to use special software to determine which meaning of a term is correct in a particular context. For example, "Siemens" could refer to the company, its founder, or a unit of conductivity.

The Theseus project includes Siemens, SAP, and several other German companies and research institutes. "We’re also helping to restructure the Internet," says Raffler. "The network architecture for the Web has to be redesigned in a manner that will make it more robust, reliable, and able to handle a rapidly increasing data volume, while remaining secure." The latter is a crucial issue, which is why CT has around 70 experts who specialize in making products and systems hacker-proof (see  Security).

Another buzzword these days is convergence—and not just within the Internet. The telecommunication, Internet, media, and entertainment sectors are now being referred to as the "TIME industry." Technically speaking, convergence means that mobile and fixed-line networks are merging.

For example, there are services that permit cell phone calls to be made via a fixed-line number in the area around your home. Experts believe almost all data traffic will one day be carried via the Internet, whereby nearly all types of everyday devices will be linked to the Web. This will lead to convergence in the data world, as information from the most diverse sources will be accessible from anywhere using any type of communication device.

"Users don’t want to worry about the technology behind services," says Gerpott. Instead, they expect to have enough bandwidth to do what they want, regardless of their location and without the need for special transmission channels. Various devices—such as home and office PCs, vehicle navigation systems, and cell phones—should be able to understand one another, while data exchanges and comparisons should be either easy or automatic.

Outstanding user-friendliness is a fundamental requirement here, which is why Jarkko Sairanen, Nokia’s chief strategist, says that the usability of devices such as cell phones is currently the biggest challenge (see  interview). While Jenzowsky doesn’t expect to see any universal devices, he foresees three main interfaces with the data world in the future. "At home you’ll have a big screen for the TV, Internet, and home automation systems. Cars will have a medium-sized display for the onboard computer, which will be used to communicate with other vehicles, navigate, and call infotainment services. Finally, we will have pocket-sized computers for making calls, chatting on the Web, navigating, and sending and receiving e-mails," he says. Maintaining social contacts via various channels will become more and more important in such a world.

A similar development will occur in the industrial realm through the networked interaction of individual components in automated facilities—i.e. plug-and-play for factories. Here we will see online sensor systems, machines and control units that speak the same data language and are online. Seamless communication will also incorporate logistics chains and complete product life cycles through the inclusion of suppliers, partners, and customers (see Factory Data Democracy).

Omnipresent Internet Siemens IT Solutions and Services creates wireless communication islands in aircraft, trains, ships, and remote areas. Mogis (mobile GSM infrastructure over satellite) uses mini mobile radio base stations from Nokia Siemens Networks in airplanes, for example, that are hidden behind cabin paneling. The stations bundle incoming and outgoing calls. "The signal range of onboard cell phone in such locations must be limited to only a few meters," says Mogis project manager Stefan von der Heide. Special filters ensure that the signals do not interfere with aircraft electronic systems. The combined call data is sent from a modem to communication satellites, which transmit it to Earth, where it is fed into fixed-line and wireless networks via special Siemens servers.
                                                                                             Norbert Aschenbrenner