Pictures of the Future    Fall 2007

Billions Online

Less than half of the world’s roughly one billion computers and three billion cell phones are linked to the Internet—which means we now have a historic opportunity," says Dr. Stephan Scholz, Chief Technology Officer at Nokia Siemens Networks. "We envision a situation in which some five billion people will have permanent high-bandwidth Internet access by 2015, enabling them to talk to one another or exchange photos and videos." However, turning this vision into reality poses a huge challenge for the communications industry. Among other things, it will require the merging of today’s separate fixed-line, mobile, and data networks, a process that has already begun. The Internet is taking on more and more data traffic. In just a few years, nearly all telephone calls and TV broadcasts will run over IP technology, which enables information to be sent in small separate data packages that are then reassembled when they arrive at their destinations. "This will lead to major changes for everyone in the industry—but we’re extremely well prepared," says Scholz.

That’s because Siemens and Nokia have joined forces to offer all types of relevant solutions as the sector undergoes this transformation. Nokia Siemens Networks is one of the world leaders in both wireless and fixed-line infrastructure and services. With sales of €17 billion and a global workforce of approximately 60,000 (including 17,000 in research and development), the joint venture counts among its customers 75 of the world’s top 100 telecommunication companies.

The entire communications sector has been under tremendous cost pressure ever since the dot.com bubble burst. Although technological advances have helped cut costs, they have also reduced the number of people needed to operate telecommunications facilities. Thus the first order of business at the new joint venture is to further tighten control over expenditures. "We’re going to address this issue and use our leadership in innovation to create a foundation for business success," says Scholz. "In any case," adds colleague Lauri Oksanen, head of Nokia Siemens Network’s Product Technology in Espoo, Finland, "we’ve already got the most extensive portfolio in the industry."

Good-bye to Large Switching Cabinets.Most of the two billion people who are expected to become Internet users in coming years will probably be connected to the Web via mobile devices. With this in mind, Nokia Siemens Networks is working on a new type of mobile Internet architecture called Internet High Speed Packet Access (I-HSPA) technology.

Today the fastest theoretical data transfer rate for wireless downloads (14.4 Mbit/s—see Facts and Forecasts and Pictures of the Future, Fall 2004, Always-on Society—Trends) is offered by HSPA. "I-HSPA technology enables us to directly link cell phones to the Internet via a base station, without using a radio network controller or RNC," explains Antti Vuorinen, who heads the Application Laboratory in Espoo. A major telecommunications provider generally requires dozens of these man-sized switching cabinets to operate a nationwide network. Depending on the equipment setup, several hundred base stations might be connected to an RNC today. "I-HSPA therefore allows providers to employ less equipment while still maintaining the same bandwidth," says Vuorinen. This in turn will lower the cost of mobile broadband.

To thoroughly assess its innovations, Nokia Siemens Networks operates a large test network in Espoo, where several base stations cover ten square kilometers. "Here, our developers can test the interaction between various devices, transmission technologies, and services," says Vuorinen. Workers at the site are issued a special Nokia Siemens Networks SIM card, and the frequencies used are "loaned out" by the Finnish Communications Regulatory Authority. In addition to the new I-HSPA architecture, Nokia Siemens Networks is testing its mobile WiMAX system. Fixed WiMAX already exists for point-to-point transmission. This technology can in theory achieve transfer rates of up to 70 Mbit/s over a distance of 50 km. Mobile WiMAX represents a real wireless alternative to DSL in areas that can either not be hooked up to the Internet via cables, or where the costs of such a link would be prohibitive. But now, mobile WiMAX is being developed to provide service for devices that are on the move. To this end, a major field test will be launched at the end of this year, and Nokia plans to launch devices that use the technology in 2008. Working with industry partners, Nokia Siemens Networks is also building a WiMAX network for U.S. wireless provider Sprint that will serve some 100 million customers. Sprint is investing $3 billion in the project.

Dr. Egon Schulz, who heads Nokia Siemens Networks’ Future Mobile Communication Technologies department in Munich, is looking a little further down the road. Among other things, he and his team are working on Long Term Evolution (LTE), which operates with several antennas per base station and is expected to offer a data transfer rate of up to 170 Mbit/s in its initial version. Such high data rates will be necessary because many more pictures, songs and, above all, films will be downloaded from the Web in the future. "Users want movies to start immediately after they click them. They don’t want to wait," says Schulz. Nokia Siemens Networks has in fact already built a corresponding demonstration system. "At the moment, we’re up to 170 Mbit/s using two antennas. With four we get 340 Mbit/s," says Schulz. "But this was achieved in controlled laboratory conditions; there are too many possible sources of interference to reach that level in the field." LTE employs the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) procedure, which uses radio bandwidths more efficiently and can therefore transfer more data. WiMAX also uses OFDM, as does WLAN, the DVB-T and DVB-H TV standards. Schulz believes mobile devices for LTE can be developed quickly, now that manufacturers have fully developed the underlying chip technology.

He and his team have also achieved a wireless rate of 1 Gbit/s. They did so by combining OFDM with an intelligent antenna system consisting of three transmitting and five receiving antennas. The transmission bandwidth here was 100 MHz, however, which is five times higher than what LTE was designed for. The system’s range of several hundred meters is also lower than that achieved with today’s radio cells. "For such high transfer rates, long range is currently not required," says Schulz. That’s because Nokia Siemens Networks’ scenario involves using these high bandwidths mostly in hot spots, where mobile terminals automatically adjust data transfer rates in accordance with available bandwidth. "We’ve already got the rudiments down for such a system," says Schulz. "At the moment, it can smoothly switch over from 14 kbit/s to 5 Mbit/s and also transmit videos without any interruption."

Struggling for New Frequencies. Although LTE is far from ready for mass production, another completely new chapter in mobile communications is already beginning. This October, the World Radio Conference (WRC) will convene in Geneva, Switzerland. At the meeting, representatives of the member countries of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) will conduct negotiations on the frequency spectrum for fourth-generation (4G) mobile radio. "This is going to be exciting, because it’s still not clear where the required frequencies might lie," Schulz explains. "At the moment, they’re used differently in different countries." Standardization probably won’t be achieved here until 2011. The first 4G cell phone prototypes could become available in 2014. These new phones are expected to be extremely powerful by today’s standards, as the goal is a data transfer rate of 1 Gbit/s.

Such speed is the norm in the Internet backbone today, where large routers transmit data worldwide along lines that can accommodate between 2.5 and 10 Gbit/s. However, the huge boom in video portals such as YouTube and other high-data services will require the introduction of even more powerful technologies. That’s why Nokia Siemens Networks is planning to expand glass fiber transmission technologies. "Customers are now asking for lines that can handle 40 to 100 Gbit/s," says Ernst-Dieter Schmidt, who conducts optical systems research in Munich. The glass fiber lines transmit light signals (in the infrared range at a wavelength of 1,500 nm) thousands of kilometers. These light signals are then converted back to electrical signals when they reach their destination.

Light Pulse. Optical-fiber networks also offer a further advantage in that once they’ve been laid, they can be equipped with new technology that increases bandwidth. "All you have to do is replace the optical transmitters and receivers," Schmidt explains. Lines that can transmit 40 Gbit/s will be ready for market launch at the end of 2008. With the help of amplifiers along their routes, they will be able to transmit data over a distance of up to 1,400 km. The 100 Gbit/s lines will then go online in 2010. "Transmitting such large volumes of data is an extremely complex process," says Schmidt. For one thing, you need very fast modulators that can generate the required frequencies and thus the information bits. The individual light pulses are also unimaginably short. At 1 Gbit/s, a bit is a pulse 20 cm in length, but at 100 Gbit/s, it’s only 2 mm long—and traveling at 300,000 km/s.

Regardless of which technology is used to transmit data, it will have to be of very high quality and extremely reliable. "Future users won’t be interested in what type of bandwidth they’re working with," says Oksanen. "They will simply want to be able to use Internet services anytime and anywhere—without complications." The challenge for wireless providers in particular, according to Oksanen, is that they will need to react more rapidly to Internet developments in the future in order to ensure that trusted services from Google, MySpace, YouTube etc. will function smoothly on cell phones as well. "We can help providers operate their networks as efficiently as possible and rapidly integrate new applications—whether it’s a fixed-line or a mobile network," says Oksanen. "Once we do all this, the vision of five billion people online will become a reality," adds Scholz.
                                                                                               Norbert Aschenbrenner