Pictures of the Future Fall 2007
Factories of the Future – Trends
Rebirth in the Virtual Universe
Products and manufacturing processes are already being developed and tested in virtual environments. But translating them into their real-world counterparts is still a challenge. As Siemens draws closer to bridging this gap, new possibilities are materializing, including factories that design themselves and walk-in Websites in which consumers build their own products.
Virtual worlds allow planners to visualize and test future production processes. The same goes for individual products
Tiny components proceed relentlessly down automated production lines. One line assembles circuit boards for automation systems. Another produces the contactors that will switch motors on and off. A third manufactures that most emblematic of automation devices: the push button. The devices are produced around the clock in three shifts at a plant operated by Siemens Automation and Drives (A&D) near Amberg, an autobahn-hour east of Nuremburg. The plant is one of 23 similar Siemens installations around the world that produce components for the 121-billion-€-per-year automation market. It is a market that—thanks to its ability to save time, money and energy—is virtually insatiable.
To meet demand for current and future products, the Amberg plant is creating a digital copy of itself. Ten engineers led by Project Manager Holger Griesenauer are using sophisticated process and plant simulation and optimization tools from UGS—now a division of A&D known as Siemens PLM Software (see p.16)—to digest the specifications of every product produced in the plant, every machine used in production, and every connection between those machines. "When we’ve completed this process at the end of 2007," says Griesenauer, "we’ll be able to assemble production processes in the virtual environment, test them in detail, and ensure that we can respond to customer requests before making changes in our physical plant (see Factory Planning. This will save time and money as it will allow us to optimize our actual production processes while minimizing down time. What’s more," he adds, "engineers in all 23 facilities will be able to tap into the same product and production database to develop and test individualized solutions for their own customers (Product Development) regardless of where they are."
Joining Lifecycles and Supply Chains. The advanced technology that is allowing plants like the one in Amberg to transition from old-fashioned paper diagrams, excel documents and localized CAD (computer aided design) solutions to databases that allow interactive, multi-site use of 3D functional images is built on a concept called product lifecycle management (PLM). PLM involves the integration and documentation of all the information associated with a product—from raw materials and suppliers to design and manufacturing, and from customer delivery to maintenance and disposal—into a single, seamless database. Today, this process is gathering steam. According to A&D Group President Helmut Gierse, "formerly isolated, stand-alone solutions in product design, production and service software are being molded into what will eventually be an integrated system."
But to be comprehensive, a product’s PLM view must be supplemented by its supply chain management (SCM) view. SCM provides a corresponding overview of a product’s financial and logistical data. Siemens’ vision—according to Gierse—is that by 2020 the software needed to produce a product’s PLM-SCM view will be so holistically integrated that "every facet of its lifecycle can be simulated, thus leading to virtual commissioning and the automatic generation of a production solution in the real world."
Although PLM-SCM-based simulation technology is still young, it is profoundly changing the way companies do business. Already, according to AMR Research, the leading advisor on the optimization of supply chains, about 20 % of all product and production changes are performed in the virtual world (see Interview with R. Martin). And with good reason. Studies by Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute indicate that advanced simulation technologies such as those being implemented in Amberg and at Siemens Transportation Systems in Krefeld, Germany (see Rail Systems) result in a 15 % reduction in product ramp-up time, a 10 % improvement in productivity, a 20 % cut in the cost of planning new production facilities, and a 15 % improvement in product quality (see Facts and Forecasts)
Whether applied to visualizing automotive production lines (left) or planning entire factories, (right), simulation can optimize virtually every aspect of production
Not only is simulation attractive because of its economic advantages, but because it represents the only realistic response to the major trends affecting most businesses. These trends include increasing product individualization, increasingly distributed value chains, rising product complexity and functionality, and the relentless pressure to move from product idea to market introduction in the shortest possible time.
Self-Configuring Factories. In addition, as it has moved away from commodity businesses in communications and automotive parts, Siemens has witnessed another trend that demands enhanced use of simulation: a sharp increase in project-related business—items like locomotives and windmill turbines that are produced in relatively small lots. "Since every project order is unique, simulation plays an important roll in terms of minimizing ramp-up time," comments Dr. Robert Neuhauser, who heads key parts of Siemens’ Corporate Supply Chain and Procurement and is a leader in the company’s Innovation and Manufacturing Joint Initiative (see sidebar).
As these trends take shape, Siemens foresees that today’s production plants will evolve into intelligent digital factories. "Digital representations of plants will make it possible to modernize their physical counterparts much more quickly and accurately than is now possible," says Ralf-Michael Franke, president of A&D’s Industrial Automation Systems Division. "Then, when components are installed in the physical plant, they will configure themselves and establish communication with each other, thus eliminating start-up time. Once in operation, production processes will optimize and even heal themselves. The key point is that the virtual and real worlds will be increasingly intermeshed."
Dr. Gerd Ulrich Spohr, head of Strategic Technology at A&D, explains just how intermeshed these worlds are likely to become: "We want machines and processes on the factory floor to generate information that will precision tune their counterparts in the virtual world. Then, when an alteration in the real world is required, we will be able to simulate a solution so accurately that it will automatically generate the software to alter a machine’s behavior to meet the new specification. We see this becoming a single, integrated process requiring very few manual interactions. That is our vision, and we expect it to be realized within the next 10 years."
Meeting the Mechatronic Challenge. Before Siemens’ collective vision of a fully integrated virtual / real production-information landscape can be realized, however, it will have to overcome what experts call the "mechatronic challenge"—a kind of technological Mount Everest in which the data covering the mechanical and physical characteristics of objects is combined with their electrical and software functions in real-time, dynamic, virtual prototypes. Achieving this will involve overcoming the fact that mechanical, electrical and software engineering "grew up as separate disciplines, each with its own set of design tools," points out Dr. Bernhard Nottbeck, head of Siemens Corporate Research and Technology’s (CT) Production Processes Division. "But if we can combine these three disciplines, it will be a major breakthrough."
In addition to the challenges of combining systems into a holistic prototype, developers must deal with the real-time interactions of multiple physical parameters such as temperature, pressure, and magnetic fields in the virtual world. "The result of the interactions between such forces is an explosion in complexity," say Dr. Albert Gilg, who heads Siemens CT’s Virtual Design Department.
Will Siemens be able to meet these challenges? Already, major pieces of the company’s integrated vision are coming together. Without a doubt, the biggest of these is the recent addition of Siemens PLM Software to A&D. In addition, the new division’s extensive product offering will soon be complimented by Simatic Automation Designer, a multifaceted tool suite from A&D that will, according to Project Leader Dr. Wolfgang Schlögl, "allow mechanical, electrical and automation engineers to work collaboratively on the same planning and engineering activities." When added to simulation tools from Siemens PLM Software, this technology could result in a new way of developing products in which manufacturing information is automatically generated from a product’s specifications.
"For example," explains Schlögl, "if a designer specifies a product’s surface characteristics, the system will automatically choose the right production process to meet the requirement. Put it all together and you could eventually have a technology that, based on extremely accurate product and production simulations, automatically generates the factory layout as well as the processes needed to produce the product exactly as simulated."
Manufacturing Matters at Siemens
With over 300 large factories, each of which has sales above 50 million €, Siemens is one of the world’s largest manufacturers. Indeed, at Siemens, over 150,000 people (55 % in Europe, 22 % in North America, and 23 % in Asia) are involved in producing everything from LEDs to lithotriptors. In view of this, the company recently established an "Innovation and Manufacturing Joint Initiative" that interfaces with representatives from all company Groups. "Working with the Groups, we are identifying the hot topics, the best practices, and the best ways of sharing results," says Reinhold Achatz (photo), head of Corporate Research and Technologies, who leads the Initiative. "Our goal is to drive technology-related and process-related innovation in manufacturing." That makes a lot of sense, considering the fact that improvements in manufacturing productivity at Siemens translate into about one billion € in savings per year, according to Dr. Robert Neuhauser, who works closely with Achatz on the Initiative and heads key parts of Siemens’ Corporate Supply Chain and Procurement activities. "Manufacturing has changed fundamentally in recent years," he says. "Ten years ago long-term planning was everything. Today, the secret to success is flexibility. As a result, we are training a new crop of factory managers who understand R&D, supply chain management, and of course manufacturing."
Answers in the Making. Many more pieces are coming together to build Siemens’ vision. At CT’s Software and Engineering (SE) Division, for instance, researchers are exploring how manufacturing-related information can be structured so that it can be seamlessly transferred without having to be input more than once. "As a result of our research, we can now determine how well different software tools will work together," says Dr. Ulrich Löwen, who heads SE’s Systems Engineering Department.
And at Siemens Corporate Research (SCR) in Princeton, New Jersey, Dr. George Lo and coworkers are examining how centralized software hierarchies in manufacturing systems can be reconceptualized to make them survivable. "What we are developing," says Lo, "is a system that is characterized by highly distributed controllers that are capable of reconfiguring themselves after a catastrophic event in order to maintain critical operations."
In addition, with a view to creating open, yet seamless information environments in which simulations and real machines can interact, SCR and A&D are testing a software platform based on common semantic models. "Suppose everyone in a room was asked to draw a picture of a house; you’d have as many models as people. Well, it’s the same with the software used by our business units. But if we can standardize the semantics, then communication will be much more efficient," says Lo.
Where will all these developments take us over the next twenty years? "What we’re moving toward is a virtual representation of the entire value chain—everything from raw materials to lifetime maintenance, remote service and product and production planning in a holistic, seamless product lifecycle and supply chain management environment," says Paul Camuti, president of Siemens Corporate Research. "In twenty years the real and virtual worlds will be seamlessly integrated. Our simulations will duplicate reality down to the last detail. The result will be virtually limitless manufacturing flexibility."
The result could also be a revolution in retailing and consumer purchasing. Already, some clothing stores provide "mass customized" personalized items. But as simulation technology matures, high-tech kiosks and "walk-in Websites" that link us to manufacturers and their suppliers may allow us to profoundly and realistically individualize, test and even experience the appearance and personalities of everything from phones and scooters to clothing and the design and decoration of our homes. We may even venture into virtual worlds ourselves.
Arthur F. Pease