Pictures of the Future Fall 2005
Auto Electronics – Trends
Ingenious Electronics
The European Union is working to reduce traffic fatalities by half in coming years, while strict emissions limits in the U.S. will require new solutions. It all adds up to tremendous challenges for the automotive industry. Siemens VDO is responding with innovative technologies, including sensor-supported driver assistance systems and environmentally friendly engine controls.
Improved night vision: Despite oncoming headlights, pedestrians are clearly visible on the center console display. An infrared sensor detects them, and a warning appears on the head?up display in the driver’s field of vision.
Watch out for cars!" Kids hear this warning all the time when they go out to play. But in 15 years, parents may be less worried than they are today. That’s because the likelihood of being hit by a car is steadily decreasing. "Thanks to sophisticated sensors, the cars of the future will monitor traffic and warn drivers of dangers in advance. In emergency situations, systems could even intervene autonomously," says Dr. Jochen Kölzer, who is responsible for transportation issues at Siemens Corporate Technology’s (CT) Strategic Marketing department.
But that’s still a long way off. Today, the automotive industry is facing tremendous challenges. On the one hand, politicians are demanding further reductions in the number of traffic accidents, as well as lower emissions. On the other hand, consumers want personalized, technologically sophisticated vehicles that perform well yet consume less fuel. "For automakers, however, if they hope to survive amid increasingly fierce competition, the top priority is to be able to manage the cost of developing and making their products," adds Dr. Thomas Schlick, Managing Director for Technology at the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA). "And that’s also one of the biggest challenges facing suppliers," says Roger Deckers, Director of the Technology Board at Siemens VDO Automotive.
Together with Kölzer, Deckers heads a project called “The Future of Automotive 2020," which presents trends in the automotive sector and is designed to serve as a source for business strategies (see insert "The Future of the Automobile"). Product development is also oriented to the results of trend research. Siemens VDO, for example, is working on driver assistance systems, customized navigation and infotainment systems, a modular expansion of vehicle software and electronics and revolutionary brake system concepts.
Active Safety. Safety is still the leading priority. In 2001, the European Union announced the goal of reducing by half the approximately 40,000 annual traffic fatalities in its member nations (15 countries at the time) by 2010. In 1970, nearly 78,000 people died in traffic accidents in the EEC (the EU’s forerunner). This decline in fatalities is explained in part by the introduction of restraint systems, air bags and antilock brake systems. Such passive systems still have potential, but additional measures are needed to meet the EU’s ambitious goals. "To achieve those goals, we’ll need to move from passive to active safety," says Kölzer. That transition is already in full swing. Automakers and suppliers are working on a broad front to develop systems that prevent accidents from happening in the first place. Furthermore, their results are in production. The Citroën C5, for example, has a warning system that causes the seat to vibrate if a driver tries to change lanes without using the turn signal. A similar system from Siemens VDO uses a vibrating steering wheel as a warning. In September 2005 at the International Motor Show (IAA) in Frankfurt, Germany, the company introduced its vision of "cars that can see." Six different sensors work in concert to scan and evaluate the car’s surroundings and assist the driver (see "Driver Assistance").
The Future of the Automobile – in 2020
In 15 years there will be even more vehicle types than today. They will be needed in order to satisfy customers’ different needs. Countries such as India and China need inexpensive, safe vehicles, for example—as do the growing numbers of immigrants settling in the United States. The industrialized countries are increasingly becoming "graying societies," on the other hand, which boosts demand for comfortable, more expensive cars. Scarcity of natural resources necessitates building smaller cars that are ideal for short trips. These are among the results of the "Future of Automotive" study, which was conducted under the leadership of Dr. Jochen Kölzer (Siemens Corporate Technology) and Roger Deckers (Siemens VDO). To ensure the most stable basis possible for Siemens VDO’s business strategy, the team took part in numerous workshops and interviews with international experts to gain insights into what automotive technology will be like in the year 2020. The technology scenario approach used in Pictures of the Future was helpful in this search for most important trends, biggest challenges and most important markets, and the team members also included external factors such as oil prices, demographics and economic growth. Their conclusions also show that personal transportation will continue to be a major priority, despite the high price of oil. Automotive traffic worldwide will also increase significantly (see graph). Thanks to electronics and optimized components, however, fuel consumption and emissions will be reduced further. Hybrid vehicles and hydrogen-powered cars will play a more important role. In 15 years, the mechanical parts and hydraulics used today for braking and steering will be partially replaced by x-by-wire systems. But one thing won’t change: Even the car of the future will be driven on roads. Flying cars still belong to the realm of science fiction.
Siemens also took part in the INVENT initiative funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry of Education and Research. INVENT called for 24 project partners to cooperate over a fouryear period in developing solutions for safe and smooth-flowing traffic. The agenda included traffic management, navigation aids and driver assistance systems. Siemens investigated ways of improving safety for pedestrians, for example. Here, the researchers developed a sensor system for car bumpers that registers pedestrian contact with a vehicle and then raises the engine compartment hood a few centimeters in a fraction of a second. The system is designed to prevent head injuries caused by striking the engine block. The system is expected to be in production in 2007.
Sensors on Wheels. "Sensors will also be inside our cars," Kölzer says. Improved temperature and air quality sensors, for instance, will further improve comfort (see "Good Air on Board"). And in stead of using ozone-killing fluorocarbon gas, tomorrow’s cars will increasingly use carbon dioxide (CO2) as a coolant for air conditioning systems. If such systems release minute quantities of CO2, drivers could feel fatigued. But gas sensors could detect the danger in advance. What’s more, Kölzer is convinced that systems for monitoring drivers themselves will hit the market before long. "It would be possible to measure a driver’s stress level, for example," he says. The technology could then inform the driver and turn down the radio, for instance, or reduce the number of display elements in the instrument cluster. Another possibility is a warning system that monitors drivers’ eyelid movements and warns them if they are becoming drowsy. This technology emerged from Awake, a EU project, in which Siemens participated. The project was completed in late 2004.
Experts agree that assistance systems must not infringe on the driver’s autonomy or diminish driving enjoyment. "First, the driver has to be aware of impending danger and be given a clear warning," emphasizes Schlick. Drivers must always be able to override any of a car’s independent responses." Adds Kölzer: "If not, manufacturers would have enormous liability problems."
View from tomorrow’s driver’s seat. Modular design allows adjustments tailored to the driver’s needs
Kölzer also points out that sensors and calculation algorithms will not be able to evaluate situations the way a person does in the foreseeable future. "Drivers will still have to use their intelligence," Schlick says. "Ultimately, they will still be responsible." In cases where the driver can’t control a vehicle, however, a computer will intervene—for example with ESP stability control, which applies the brakes to the wheels individually in order to prevent over-steering.
Improved Electronics. Lately, more and more customers have been complaining about vehicle breakdowns caused by electronic faults. Statistics show, however, that today’s cars are much more reliable than those of 30 years ago. According to the German automobile club (ADAC), the probability of a breakdown with a new vehicle within its first six years of use has fallen from 3.5 % in 1976 to 0.6 % today. But if the past was characterized by breakdowns resulted from leaky fuel lines or other mechanical defects, today the causes are primarily found in electronic system faults. From 1990 to 2001, the share of a vehicle’s components represented by electronic systems increased from 16 % to about 25 %; and by 2010 that figure is expected to climb to 40 %.
"So the solution to our problems with electronics is more electronics—but even better electronics," concludes SV’s Deckers. The key here is standardization of components, thus allowing individual software modules to talk with one another and avoid misunderstandings. With this in mind, Siemens is a founding member of the AUTOSAR consortium (see Software: We Have Upgraded Your Car), an organization that is setting the stage for standardized software component interfaces, thus opening the door to affordable updates and re-use of proven modules. As this process of standardization is implemented, drivers will increasingly be able to "fill up" their cars with software "even after they’ve left the production plant," explains Deckers.
In addition to making cars safer, electronic systems are also expected to make them more environmentally friendly. On this front, Siemens VDO is engaged in many projects for reducing fuel consumption. And some of the results are already on the market, including precise fuel management with piezo direct injection (see Promising Power: Piezo Fuel Technology), and engine systems that use sensors to monitor and optimize processes right in the combustion chamber or that are designed to alternate between natural gas and gasoline fuel supplies.
A Program that Saves Fuel with Smart Feedback
With fuel prices on the rise, growing numbers of drivers are seeing the value of adopting an economical driving style. In Toulouse, France, Siemens VDO is coordinating the Gerico project, which is funded by France’s Ministry of the Environment. The project’s goal is to provide an information system that will encourage motorists to drive economically. This involves using software that analyzes data from an onboard computer and shows the latest fuel consumption values and CO2 emissions on a display. "The data display alone has an effect on drivers’ behavior behind the wheel," says Dr. Mariano Sans, who heads the project for Siemens (pictured working on a test vehicle). The system also links the engine control system with data from the navigation system, which makes it possible to calculate optimal speed and acceleration profiles. An automatic transmission, for example, could avoid unnecessary gear shifting when a sharp curve or a steep decline is directly ahead. "Our simulations indicate potential fuel savings of at least 10 %," says Sans. The results of the project are expected to be released in late 2005. It will take at least three years before the software becomes commercially available. "Gerico is particularly well-suited for vehicle fleets," Sans explains. Logistics companies and municipal transportation operators could use it to achieve significant savings. In addition to other partners, including the IERSET research association, the City of Toulouse is also participating in the project.
"We’re also working on a modular system for hybrid drives," reports Deckers. Components include motors for fully electric starts and integrated starter generators that convert mechanical drivetrain energy into electricity, and vice versa. It’s difficult to precisely calculate the resulting fuel savings, because values vary from vehicle to vehicle. "In the last 15 years, the average fuel consumption of new vehicles overall has been reduced by more than 20 %—mostly thanks to electronics," says Deckers. Furthermore, emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides have fallen by 95 % since 1990.
Electronic systems are largely invisible to drivers, and are evident only in displays and infotainment systems. But it’s these interfaces that have become particularly crucial to drivers’ overall relationship with their cars. "Here it’s all about people’s feelings," says Deckers. "Drivers have to like their cars, and whether they do so is determined to a large extent by what they see and feel." That’s why Siemens VDO is designing control elements that are easy to understand and operate. It’s the best way to ensure that drivers will accept and like using new safety and assistance systems. And it explains why development teams include experts in user-friendliness and ergonomics. According to Schlick, it all adds up to good news for drivers. "When you get in a car, you want the controls to be intuitive," he says. "That means cars should be practical and offer concrete benefits. They shouldn’t be packed with every possible technology."
Norbert Aschenbrenner