Pictures of the Future Fall 2005
Auto Electronics – Facts and Forecasts
Electronics: Driving Automotive Innovation
Actual and expected sales of automotive active safety systems
Demand is increasing steadily for a broad range of active driver assistance systems. According to a study conducted by Frost & Sullivan (F&S) in 2004, the anti-lock braking system (ABS) and the Electronic Stability Program (ESP) will account for the lion’s share of a 3.5 billion € European market in 2010. Other systems, such as adaptive cruise control, lane deviation warning, blind spot warning and tire pressure monitoring systems, are gradually entering the market and demand is growing. Whereas almost all new cars are offered today with ABS, only about half of them come with ESP. However, this share is expected to rise to nearly 70 percent by 2010. The market for automatic tire pressure control systems is expected to increase more than fourfold by 2010, to just under 337 million €. As a result, this system will then be found in one half of all new cars sold.
Starting from Scratch. Although the market for lane deviation warning and blind spot warning systems is barely on the radar, it is expected to start growing in 2006. It is anticipated that lane deviation warning systems will generate sales of over 16 million € in Europe in 2010. The market for night vision systems is expected to be comparable in size. Market researchers at Frost & Sullivan forecast that assistance systems that help drivers change lanes will post sales of almost 26 million € in Europe by 2010. According to F&S, head-up displays, which provide drivers with information directly in their field of vision, will not have any market significance in Europe until 2006, although growth potential is considered to be very high.
Whereas electronics and software made up only 16 % of a vehicle’s total value in 1990, this figure had increased to 25 % by 2001. By 2010, their share of a car’s total value is expected to climbed to almost 40 %, according to a study conducted by the Center for Automotive Research, PriceWaterhouseCoopers, VDA and the city of Leipzig.
When assistance systems will arrive
"We don’t expect to see any ground-breaking innovations for mechanical parts," says Dr. Alexander Borusan, head of the Fraunhofer Institute for Software and Systems Engineering (ISST) in Berlin. "Electronics and software account for 90 % of innovations." Considering this trend, it is not surprising that mid-range cars have 30 to 50 control units, while upper-range vehicles have up to 80.
In a recent study conducted by Dekra, an international certification and consulting company, 85 % of the 1,300 German car owners surveyed said they found electronic assistants to be helpful. And although 39 % of car buyers have had problems with electronics, they believe that the drawbacks are outweighed by improved safety and comfort. Vehicle safety is a particularly important purchasing criterion in Germany, where society is aging. According to calculations made by the Federal Statistical Office, the share of the German population over 60 will increase to almost 35 % by 2030. However, it is particularly older drivers who want to have enhanced safety equipment when buying a new car.
Sylvia Trage