Software - Facts and Forecasts
Falling Prices and Exploding Complexity
The world software market is growing steadily. U.S. market researchers at IDC report that worldwide spending on packaged software alone was $185 billion in 2003 and is expected to reach some $260 billion by 2008. The overall software market is, of course, much larger, because it includes software that companies write themselves. Siemens spends over 3 bill. on software development annually. In contrast to the market for PC-based software, where growth is slowing, analysts expect explosive growth in embedded softwaresoftware used where most people dont see it, as part of anything from a cell phone to an industrial control system.
The main factor driving this trend is rapidly falling memory prices. In the past decade, for example, the dollar price per megabit of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) fell from $3.50 in 1995 to about 2 cents in 2004, reports California-based semiconductor research house iSuppli, which predicts DRAM prices will fall to 0.4 cent per megabit by 2008. Todays automobiles tell the story. Embedded functions are migrating from hardware to software as microprocessors take over functions from electromechanical devices. In 2000, car manufacturers and suppliers spent about 25 bill. on development and production of software designed for automobiles, according to Mercer Management Consulting. Mercer predicts spending will quadruple by 2010. By then, 35 % of the value of the average car will come from electronics and software (with 13 % being software). Some day soon, car owners will go to their local dealers for software upgrades, says Jan Dannenberg, who heads Mercers automotive analysis group. For example, they could download a program that supports safer braking on snow and ice. Of course, embedded software is in more than just cars. Daya Nadamuni, principal analyst with Gartner Dataquest, says the greatest potential for embedded software is where there is a human interface. Examples include cell phones, information points, patient monitoring systems and industrial control systems. Massachusetts-based research firm VDC also predicts that the automotive, consumer electronics and military and aerospace industries will lead the way in developing new embedded software applications. A typical embedded application has grown from 100,000 to one million lines of code over the past two years, according to Wind River, a U.S.-based maker of embedded software operating systems. This complexity will grow as devices are increasingly networked. According to Watts Humphrey of Carnegie Mellon Universitys Software Engineering Institute, the size and complexity of systems and applications grows exponentially, increasing by a factor of ten every five years.
The value of the software and electronics in automobiles is set to grow by around 8 % a year to 270 bill. by 2010on average, 35 % of total vehicle value
In order to master this complexity, more and more software components are being encapsulated in standardized modules. Reinhold Achatz, head of the Software & Engineering division at Siemens Corporate Technology, sums up the advantages: "Once the content of such a module is shown to be error-free, its size is no longer a factor. Only its interface counts. As long as the interface is simple enough, we can handle it."
Mary Lisbeth dAmico