Logistics Facts and Forecasts
Boom in Worldwide Product Shipments
Even though the world's economy remains generally sluggish, logistics is still a growth market, with Asia serving as a strong driving force. At the moment, 98 % of all goods transported between continents are moved by ship. Furthermore, according to a 2002 transportation & logistics analysis conducted by HVB Equity Research, this logistics segment is expected to grow by 5.6 % annually worldwide until 2010. Starting in 2005, a new generation of mega-container ships capable of carrying 12,000 TEU containers (Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit, about 6.1 × 2.4 × 2.6 m³) will be ready to enter service. By comparison, today's biggest container ships can carry "only" 7,500 TEU containers.
Development of worldwide container transport
Growing globalization is reflected in the growth rate of sea freight transport. Since 1980, transport volume worldwide has increased nearly sevenfold. Sea freight will also remain a growth market in the future
Development of worldwide air freight
Since 1980, the market for air freight has increased fivefold. Following the terrorist attacks in the United States in 2001, the market temporarily slumped, but is expected to recover by 2004. Growth will continue, although at a slower rate than in the past (based on estimates made since 2002)
The air freight segment is expected to register a 5.9 % annual increase worldwide through 2010, according to HVB Equity Research's data. Reacting to this boom, European aircraft manufacturer Airbus is planning to produce a freight version of the huge A380 jetliner, which will be known as the A380 Freighter. By 2008, this plane will be transporting payloads of 150 t nonstop over distances of more than 10,000 km a dramatic advance over the A300F transporter in use today. This aircraft is capable of hauling a maximum of 51 t of cargo over a distance of nearly 4,800 km, nonstop.
Overland freight transport is realized with trains, barges and trucks. Annual growth expectations for road transports are 3.3 % within Europe through 2010. According to a forecast for the year 2015 made by the German Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing, the goods transported on roads will continue to garner market share, while the share for goods transported by rail is forecast to remain just about stable. According to the study, the share of goods transported by inland waterways is expected to decrease.
Electronic Logistics
The world market for electronic logistics will triple through 2012, according to forecasts
In order to cut costs and accelerate processes, increasing numbers of companies are employing electronic logistics systems. These include end-to-end tracking systems, technology for highly automated warehouses and software solutions for the logistics sector. The global market for electronic logistics is forecast to triple in the medium term from $26 billion in 2002 to $78 billion in 2012.
A real boom is expected for end-to-end tracking systems, which make it possible to follow a product's entire path all the way from supplier to customer. Forecasters predict annual growth rates of 20 % for end-to-end tracking systems, and a sixfold increase to a total of $10 billion in 2012, as compared with a global market volume of $1.6 billion in 2002.
The global market for automated technologies for warehouses is expected to nearly double. Software solutions for logistics accounted for a total market volume of $8.2 billion worldwide last year. Market researchers from AMR Research and Siemens expect the annual growth rate for such solutions to reach 17 % by 2012. Accordingly, their market volume could increase to as much as $38 billion within the next ten years.
Development of road transport volume in Europe
Compared with sea and air freight transport, overland shipments in Europe have grown rather slowly a trend that is expected to continue in the future. Nonetheless, by 2010, ton-kilometers of goods transported overland in Europe will have grown by about one-third compared with 2000
Sebastian Moser, Ulrike Zechbauer