Light & Facts and Forecasts

Publications        Pictures of the Future Fall 2003

Until recently, light-emitting diodes (LEDs) were best known as the ubiquitous on/off indicator lights on computer monitors, printers and remote controls. But recent advances in materials and production processes (see article A Bright Future) are now paving the way for new LED applications that will transform a wide range of activities.

Thanks to their small dimensions, high efficiency and long lifetime, LEDs will make significant inroads into lighting applications that have traditionally been dominated by other light sources. While LEDs cost more per lumen (the unit of luminous flux) than incandescent or fluorescent lighting, they are ideal for applications like traffic lights, railroad signals and airfield lighting – places where a burned-out bulb can pose a serious safety concern and where replacement is expensive.

Cell Phones and Automotive Applications. Light-emitting diodes are increasingly being used in the automotive sector for instrument panel lighting, taillights and, in the future, for headlights. They serve as backlighting for the LCDs (liquid crystal displays) in mobile phones, PDAs, digital cameras and camcorders. Indeed, high-brightness LEDs have been a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy market for semiconductors and optical components of all types, notes Robert Steele, Director of Optoelectronics at Strategies Unlimited, a U.S.-based market research and consulting company.

While the markets for most electronic and optical components have been going downhill since the boom year 2000, Steele's researchers have revealed that the market for high-brightness LEDs reached an impressive 1.8 billion U.S. $ in 2002. "This spectacular growth was led by a dramatic ramp-up in the use of high-brightness LEDs in backlighting for LCDs, for example in cell phones," Steele observes. Based on continuing "positive trends in this dynamic industry," Steele forecasts the market for high-brightness LEDs will grow by almost 20 % a year to reach in excess of 4 billion U.S. $ by 2007.

According to Osram, the market for LEDs and LED modules amounted to some 2.7 billion € in 2002 and is forecast to reach around 7 billion € by 2007.

But the total market volume of LEDs is still a modest 15 % of the world market for conventional lamps and lighting fixtures – with growth expected to reach 28 % by 2007. Over the same period, the global market for lighting will increase from today's 18.2 billion € to 25.3 billion € (see  illustration lighting market).

Future Markets for LEDs. Residential and industrial lighting are the largest potential markets for LEDs, but first the industry has to significantly raise lumen output per watt and cut costs (see Trend projections for LEDs) , notes Robert Moran, an industry analyst at Business Communications Company, Inc., a U.S.-based industry research firm. "In ten to 20 years LEDs will lead the pack," he predicts.

In the near term, Moran believes that "further dramatic improvements in light output slated for the next year" could spur LED use in a wide variety of novel applications ranging from dentistry and diagnostics to interior design.

Global technology consultant Frost & Sullivan also believes that improvements in LEDs will offer customers real competitive advantages within the next decade. It further believes that the potential benefit to the environment offered by LEDs' high efficiency, long service life and low power consumption will be a major factor driving the widespread adoption of white LEDs.

No wonder Roland Haitz, an independent consultant and former head of R&D at Agilent Technologies, calls light emitting diodes "the third major revolution in electricity-based lighting" after the incandescent bulb and the fluorescent tube.

In the United States, the Next Generation Lighting Initiative, which includes the world's largest LED manufacturers, intends to promote the increased use of LEDs. The U.S. government is also convinced that LEDs are headed for a bright future. It is considering legislation to provide 500 million $ in funding for the study and improvement of white LEDs over the next ten years.

Peggy Salz