Pictures of the Future
Pictures of the Future Trends
The complex future scenarios developed by Siemens experts in formulating what they call "Pictures of the Future" have one thing in common: They illustrate the great extent to which information and communications technologies will impact all areas of life in the future. What follows is an overview of the most important trends uncovered by these composite visions.
Experts are in agreement. What began in the middle and second half of the 20th century with the invention of the transistor, the microchip, computers and softwareand is currently continuing in the form of the Internet and mobile communicationshas not yet come to an end. On the contrary, it hasn't even reached its heyday. Instead, we're at the beginning of a new eraon the threshold of the information age. Information and telecommunications technology will radically change all areas of life in the 21st century. Whether it's leisure activities or time spent at the office, at home or on the go, whether in the production process or in business, the healthcare sector, education or continuing educationthe multimedia processing and communication of data, information and knowledge will shape our lives and reduce the importance of the conventional production factors of work, capital and raw materials.
The holistic future scenarios, or "Pictures of the Future", developed by Siemens researchers together with experts from the company's Groups clearly illustrate that the road to the information society is paved with far more than just a series of technological milestones, new microchips, new displays, cell phones, new networks and new services. Virtually all key socio-economic trends produce their own information technology (IT) solutionsand these trends, in turn, are sometimes decisively influenced by such technologies. The following are a few of the future trends closely linked to IT advances:
Thanks to the variety of its business segments (marked in green), Siemens is well-equipped to offer interdisciplinary solutions (white) for the global challenges of the future (yellow)
- Increasing globalization and worldwide IT data sharing will mutually reinforce one another. Trade barriers will continue to fall and companies will research, develop, manufacture and sell their goods and services in more and more countriesa development that, in turn, will require a substantial increase in the flow of data. At the same time, communication methods will accelerate innovation processes, such as the development of new products around the clock and around the globe.
Information & Communications Trends
- Information and communications technologies will permeate and decisively influence all areas of lifewhether in the home, on the move, during leisure time, on the job, in the healthcare sector, or in industrial production (e-Business)
- In the future, various communications, information and entertainment technologies will converge into a network of networks, which will provide a variable quality of service as well as a very high level of data security for users
- The boundaries between information, communications and entertainment technologies will become ever more blurred. The Internet Protocol (IP) will become the most common standard; bandwidths and security problems will be overcome, and multimedia communications will be a matter of course
- The development toward higher bandwidths (both in mobile radio and in fixed-line networks) will open up virtually unlimited access to information of all kindsat any place, any time, and with any type of end user terminal or content
- In the future, more and more everyday devices will have computerized intelligence and communication abilities. This will be made possible by the continued miniaturization of microelectronics and a higher level of software performance
- Voice, gesture and mimic recognition will make devices and applications easier to operate. Human-machine interaction will be transformed into human-computer cooperation. Software agentsvirtual service genieswill be completely familiar with their users' preferences and guide them through the jungle of data. Service robots will also become more commonplace
- In many companies, the majority of business processes will soon be handled via networks as e-business. Applications will range from purchasing, simulation, development, automation and production monitoring to the delivery of goods and after sales support. Success will come only to those companies that consistently convert to e-business and recognize that the information age brings with it not just new technologies but also new ways of working. Telework and tele-cooperation will increase. So too will the outsourcing of business processes, production and the purchasing of all kinds of services from external companies. An increasing number of "breathing" companies will form flexible sub-units that work with other companies on a temporary basis.
- The necessity for life-long learning will increase with the accelerated development of the information society. Knowledge and expertise will become the basis for the creation of value; two out of every three employees are already involved with the procurement, processing and forwarding of data and information. The half-life of technical knowledge is now just under five years. In the future, tele-learning will become one of the preferred methods of continuing education, while filtering, structuring and personalizing information will become one of the great challenges facing IT.
Automation & Control Trends
- The IT solutions of the future will make it possible to network business processes in the working worldespecially in industrial manufacturingat and between all levels. The "transparent factory" will then be born. Those with proper authorization will be able to obtain an overview of all processes and also control them, while a global data network will extend the value chain to cover the entire world
- A variety of intelligent sensors and actuators will increasingly decentralize automation solutions in both industrial plants and buildings, while tele-service as well as remote maintenance and diagnosis will become increasingly commonplace
- A variety of intelligent sensors and actuators will increasingly decentralize automation solutions in both industrial plants and buildings, while tele-service as well as remote maintenance and diagnosis will become increasingly commonplace
- Individualized and customer-specific production will require automatic identification systems and e-logistics solutions for distributing goods
- "Research Automation" will be an important trend in industrial automation. Miniaturized, automated laboratories (labs on a chip) will be created, enabling thousands of genetic or protein analyses, for example, to take place simultaneously
- The chemical, pharmaceutical and food industries will also move toward the fab on a chip. Thanks to microsystem technology, micro-modules will be produced that combine high efficiency and throughput with a high degree of flexibility
- The computer as we know it today will no longer dominate. It will be replaced by new devices capable of intelligent data processing. Electronic structures will become so small and inexpensive that information processing and communication functions will be integrated in clothing, jewelry, refrigerators and cars. IT will be everywhere, but less and less visible ("ubiquitous computing").
- In the more prosperous segments of society, the importance of leisure time, consumption and personal development will continue to increase. Individual solutions will be preferred and they will be facilitated through the use of IT products. Mobile computers will help book trips, send out tax returns electronically and assist in medical treatment. They will also enable senior citizens to lead independent lives in their own homes. At the same time, efforts will have to be increased to overcome the gap between rich and poor in terms of the use of information technology (digital divide).
Power Trends
- Power generation will become more efficient and environmentally friendly; emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants (per kilowatt of generated power) will decrease
- New technologies for distributed power systems will be launched on the market. Examples include small fuel cell power stations for hydrogenand natural gas, and new, thin-layer solar modules. Consumers themselves will be able to operate small, distributed power systems
- Thanks to IT solutions, transmission and distribution networks will become more intelligent, and new transmission techniques will make it possible to optimally utilize networks and transport power to exactly where it is needed. Low-loss technologies will be used more and more frequently, including high-temperature superconductors for cables, transformers, generators and short circuit current limiters
- Knowledge-based energy services and solutions will be developed, as will densely networked power plants that organize themselves and use software agents to negotiate for gas, power, and heat on spot markets
- Energy providers will become multi-service companies offering not just water, gas and electricity, but also telephone and Internet services plus garbage disposal. Consumers will use chip cards and the Internet to purchase such services
Transportation Trends
- Drive systems will become more efficient, and less noise and pollutant emissions will be produced. This will be made possible by things like rapid valves for direct fuel injection, new catalytic converters, light-weight materials, superconducting transformers for trains, new methods of vibration damping, and software for low-energy or automatic operation of vehicles (streetcars or subways, for example)
- An "intermodal passenger and freight transportation system" could lead to optimal use of all means of transport. Such a system would provide travelers with all the information they need, so that the most convenient method of transport can be selected. All information must be available at all times, in all places, and via all terminals, including the traveler's current position, traffic jam reports, timetables, parking space availability and restaurant recommendations
- New means of transport such as the Transrapid magnetic levitation train will compete with aircraft for medium-distance travelers
- New methods of paymentsuch as the contactless smartcardwill make public transportation a more attractive option
- New methods of paymentsuch as the contactless smartcardwill make public transportation a more attractive option
- Situation-based driver assistance systems will increase comfort and safety in terms of parking, collision warnings, (semi) automatic driving, multimedia entertainment, plus office and Internet access in the vehicle. Remote diagnosis and maintenance will become everyday services
- As the world population increases, so will stress factors that could negatively affect the environment. However, these factors can be more easily monitored through intelligent, networked systems. Microelectronics, microsystems and IT solutions can help to create environmentally-friendly productswhether high-speed, piezoelectric-driven valves for vehicle engines, networked building automation systems, or computer-controlled automated simulations and production processes. The latter pair can, for example, be used to design intricately shaped turbine blades that increase power plant efficiency and are thus environmentally friendly. All of these developments have two things in common: they are strongly impacted by information technology and are associated with a high level of networking and reciprocal influence. As such, they can help promote the development of interdisciplinary solutions. Siemens is set to make significant contributions here. IT activities not only represent the largest share of revenues and expenditure for research and development at Siemens; they are also an essential powerhouse of innovation and growth for almost all the company's Groups. Whether in automation, transportation, medicine or power generationit's always information and telecommunications that intelligently link, monitor and control the components, devices and systems. They increase convenience and performance, safety and environmental compatibility.
What separates Siemens from other companies is that all the building blocks of the "global village" currently under construction are already located under one roof. This global village will be based on networkingfrom person to person, person to machine, and from machine to machine. It will be marked by multimedia communication and energy networks around the globe; onboard networks in vehicles; factory, clinic and doctors' networks; as well as the intelligent hometo name just a few. By driving innovation at the company forward, Siemens intends to build and link all these networks. In addition to making available the requisite products, systems and services, the company also wants to facilitate the simplified operation of increasingly sophisticated technology.
Siemens' units do more than just cover important future markets; the technologies they use also offer a multitude of opportunities for exploiting synergy potential and generating new business by means of interdisciplinary solutions. A few examples:
- Software agentsindependently acting and communicating program units (see articleSoftware agentsindependently acting and communicating program units (see articles on Agents, Bots and Avatars). These not only support users when it comes to finding information online; they also help them optimize power network utilization, communications network capacity, and travel route planning. not only support users when it comes to finding information online; they also help them optimize power network utilization, communications network capacity, and travel route planning.
- Automation systems originally developed for the manufacturing industry by Siemens are needed today for building management and the efficient operation of pharmaceutical plants, oil refineries or mail sorting centers.
- Tele-service is made possible by the combination of intelligent sensors and information and communications technologies. Methods of remote diagnosis and maintenance, such as those long used for industrial facilities and power plants, can now be transferred to vehicle technology. After consulting with the driver, repair technicians can dial into the vehicle's onboard system via mobile radio, call up data, locate the problem and perhaps even repair it right away. Tele-service is also an up-and-coming technology for medical systems and household appliances
- The "intelligent home" will integrate information and communications solutions, energy technology, and sensor and building automation systems. Data lines and radio will network systems with decentralized "intelligence," such as heating, refrigerators or alarms. These will be linked both with one another and with external networks for the purpose of providing remote maintenance, entertainment content or Internet access.
Medical Trends
- Improved technology will make it possible for doctors to obtain an increasingly detailed look inside the bodies of their patients. Various imaging systems that can be linked to computers will serve to provide detailed, high-resolution images and improve diagnostic accuracy. These systems will use simulations to make subsequent operations safer for patients. Specialized analysis software will assist doctors in their decision making (computer aided diagnosis)
- Minimally invasive techniques and high-precision robots will reduce the physical strain on patients undergoing operations
- Gene and protein chips will enable doctors to make an early diagnosis of illnesses on a molecular level. This will make it possible to produce drugs and medication on an individual basis. Gene treatments are also a possibility
- All the departments and wards in "digital hospitals" will be linked to one another. Computer data will then be stored in an electronic patient file that authorized persons (including external doctors via the Internet) will be able to access at any time. The efficiency of working processes and the quality of care at every level, from diagnosis and treatment all the way to post-treatment, will rise significantlywhile costs may decrease
- Tele-medical processessuch as automatic data transfer to family doctorswill support patient care at home. The goals involved here must be preventative medicine and care management. Electronic patient files will contain detailed information on preventative measures, illnesses, prescribed treatments, and the home care measures that have been taken. It will therefore be possible to avoid redundant examinations and inappropriate treatment
- Speech control and speech synthesis systems will be everywhere, whether in the home, mobile terminals, vehicles or operating rooms. These will range from affordable small devices to highly sophisticated server solutions for voice translation programs.
- Multimedia communications and image processing will be put to use for both industrial and medical applications. "Augmented reality" procedures, whereby computer data is superimposed on real images, will be widely used for everything from machine maintenance to supporting doctors during operations (see articles on Tomorrow's Operating Room).
- The same applies to security solutions, whether biometric procedures for analyzing fingerprints, voices, hand lines, or encryption solutions (see Paying With Your Fingertips). These will be used for communications and to provide access to systems or authorized areas.
This list of interdisciplinary technologies could go on almost indefinitely. It clearly demonstrates one fact, however: Siemens is well equipped for the information age, both in terms of its portfolio and the strong emphasis it places on information and telecommunications as pervasive technologies. This publication and those to follow in the series "Pictures of the Future" will focus on how all of this specifically affects those developments that Siemens experts have identified as the key factors in their various scenarios of the future.
Ulrich Eberl