Money will become increasingly immaterial in the years and decades to come. With the advent of ever more refined technologies, a large percentage of payments will be conducted electronicallyvia the Internet, a SmartCard or a cell phone. As a result, transactions involving bills and coins will become something of a rarity.
Shanghai Pudong International Airport, June 2010: "I'll just pay the driver," Cynthia Brown calls to her colleagues, who are already hurrying into the airport building. She takes out her cell phone and hastily dictates to the taxi driver the number of her virtual account. The presentation at the venture capital company had taken somewhat longer than expected. And then the traffic was horrendousif only they'd taken the Transrapid! Now it's only 25 minutes till take-off and despite the reservation, things could be tight.
"It's okay!" calls a voice from behind her. "The plane's been delayed for two hours," says Markus Zoller. Oliver Bach, his tie still draped over his shoulder from running, breathes a sigh of relief. The three colleagues have been in Shanghai to raise money for their biotech company. Still out of breath but relieved that they're going to make their flight, they now stand at the entrance to the airport wondering what to do. "At last, a business trip where I can get some shopping done," says Bach. "Well, go ahead then!" Brown replies encouragingly. "After all, it's your wedding anniversary tomorrow."
She turns to the taxi driver, who is waiting patiently for his fare. The bill is paid electronically, with the taxi driver first dialing up the number of Brown's account and then entering the amount to be paid. A second or two later, her cell phone rings and she confirms the sum by giving her code and speaking a few words so that her voice can be identified. Her bank then transfers the money automatically to the taxi company. Brown gives the driver a five-euro coin as a tip. She has to laugh at the expression of surprise on his face. It's obviously been some time since he handled cash. Nevertheless, he's quite happy to accept a few units of a leading international currency.
By now, Bach has located a perfume store. He hesitates in front of a shelf stocked with hundreds of perfumes. On the lookout for something special, he eventually spots a box that stirs a vague memory. Suddenly he realizes that he's looking at a perfume his wife has always wanted. At the cash desk, Bach produces his SmartCard, which the sales assistant promptly draws through a card-reader and hands back to him. To confirm the transaction, Bach presses his thumb onto a small field at the edge of the card, which acts as a fingerprint sensor. Seconds later, a low peep verifies that the card is being used by its rightful owner. The only thing left for Bach to do is to confirm the amount, and the price will be deducted from his credit card account.
Satisfied, he wanders back through the departure hall. At another store, he sees the latest book in the second Harry Potter series: Harry Potter and the Ghost of Cambridge. What's more, it's on sale for the equivalent of only 25 ! Bach has already bought the book in Germany, but he remembers it being much more expensive. He takes out his SmartCard, identifies himself and, using his thumb, scrolls down through the entries on a small display. Searching through last week's transactions, he quickly finds what he's looking for: at his favourite Internet outlet, he paid 35 for the book. Since his brother's birthday is coming up, Bach decides to buy it again. In fact, he decides to take three copies. After all, many of his friends would be delighted to receive the book as a gift.
Zoller, meanwhile, is busy studying the display on his personal digital assistant (PDA). At the moment, he only has eyes for his new car. In the last few minutes, he has received a message from his car dealer's software agent informing him that the design study is now ready. Zoller uses the broadband service on offer at the airport and selects a 10 Mbit/s connection to the Internet. After calling up the dealer's website, he opens up his very own personal page, where all his specifications for the new vehicle are listed. Bach's new car will be a 100 kW gasoline model, capable of traveling 100 km (62 miles) on 4.5 l (1.2 gallons). And although he hasn't opted for one of the new fuel cell hybrid models, the vehicle will be equipped with the very latest multimedia system. The gleaming red convertible will also sport beautiful pale leather upholstery. Zoller has, in fact, been able to choose just about everything for the new carright down to the specific details of the dashboard. Now he's going to see the results for the first time.
He takes his virtual-reality headset from his briefcase and slips on a data-glove. At the press of a button, the data begins to flow and the car takes shape before his very eyes. With a deft movement of the data-glove, he is able to rotate the sports car and inspect it from all sides. Reaching for the virtual door-handle, he opens the vehicle and gazes inside. Suddenly, a computerized figure appearsobviously the dealer's virtual sales representative: "Mr. Zoller, let me make you an unbeatable offer: pay now with e-cash, and I'll give you an 8 % discount!"
That's the kind of deal that's just too good to pass up. Zoller therefore clicks on the pay symbol in order to debit the sum from his virtual account. The computer now creates a link to his bank, and special software encrypts the data transfer. Bach looks over his shoulder with interest: "Is that secure?" he inquires. "Sure," Zoller replies. "You'd need a quantum computer to crack an elliptical key with 512 bits. That's the equivalent of RSA with 15,000 bitsand quantum computers haven't been invented yet." Bach is confused but nods in admiration. Meanwhile, Zoller enters the sum, clicks on the payment symbol and shuts down the bank program.
"Any success?" asks Brown. "I've bought myself a silk dressing gown with dragons on it." Zoller looks up. "Not bad. But take a look at this. I've just bought myself a new car." At that moment, a melodious noise from his PDA signals the arrival of a v-mail. The short video clip shows a delighted car dealer informing Zoller that the money has now been transferred. With his order already on its way to the factory, Zoller will soon be able to follow the different stages of production via the Internet. He smiles, and folds up the computer and puts it in his briefcase. "Let me buy you both a drink," he says. "How about a Shanghai Surprise? It's a new creation and anyway, we've got lots of time before the A380 leaves."
Norbert Aschenbrenner