SIEMENS

The experts from around the world who participated in the “Prospects and Opportunities of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Media - International Delphi Study 2030” all agree that the triumphal march of ICT will continue. The reasons for this include the increasing number of components that can be put on microchips, continually expanding memory capacities, ongoing improvements to the performance capability of microprocessors and associated software, and the fact that prices will fall in the future, even as performance increases.

Delphi experts predict that ICT will be shaping our entire lives in just ten years. That’s because the digitization of all private and professional realms will continue as the Internet in particular offers new applications, functionalities, and services. Moreover, increasing global competition, major global challenges such as climate change, and demographic developments will all stimulate ICT innovations. As part of the 2009 Delphi study, which was funded in part by Germany’s Economics Ministry, some 550 ICT experts worldwide were asked to describe the most important trends in their fields between now and 2030.

Some Key Findings:

➔ Powerful communication networks will improve the overall economy. Comprehensive stationary broadband coverage with glass fiber connections and data transfer rates of 100 megabits per second or more will become the global standard. This development will proceed at different speeds in different regions, whereby the pioneers will be Asian nations, the U.S, the UK, France, and Germany.

➔ Future ICT trends will include the “Internet of Things” - a system in which items of daily use will be digitally linked and will autonomously exchange information. Here, we will also see embedded systems operating as intelligent networked processors in aircraft and machine architectures. These systems will be able to learn from - and communicate with - other intelligent systems on their own.

➔ It will also be necessary to establish high-performance communication networks that ensure permanent Internet connections between stationary computers and mobile terminals to create decentralized globally distributed resources on the Web (cloud computing). In place of powerful stationary PCs, Internet service providers will provide users with computing power, memory, programs, and network broadband as required. Some 70 percent of the experts surveyed believe that accessing computer performance in the cloud will become a normal activity by 2024.

➔ The European Union has set itself the goal of increasing the share of power provided by renewable energy sources from the current seven percent to 20 percent by 2020. However, to efficiently exploit renewable energy and guarantee supply it will be necessary to modernize energy systems through the introduction of innovative ICT solutions such as the smart grid. Experts therefore believe that ICT must be introduced to energy systems by 2020 at the latest. ICT in sectors such as transportation, telematics, energy, and intelligent building systems could also help to significantly reduce CO₂ emissions before 2020.

➔ The dynamic development of ICT will primarily impact the key German sectors of automobile production, automation systems, mechanical engineering, energy, and health care by serving as a growth accelerator and innovation driver. Just under two thirds of the experts on Germany reported that ICT value added in the automotive industry will likely increase from its present level of between 20 and 30 percent to 50 percent by 2024. This growth will include the expansion of in-vehicle Internet as well as car-tocar networking. ICT will also play a key role in electric mobility - for example, when it comes to establishing smart electricity grids.

The study was published by the Münchner Kreis, a renowned association of ICT experts in Germany, as well as by the European Center for Information and Communication Technologies (EICT), Deutsche Telekom AG, and TNS Infratest. Siemens also worked extensively on the study, which it considers to be of particular interest to the company. “ICT forms the basis of most of our products, systems, and solutions - among other things, in the automation, health care, and energy sectors,” says Prof. Dr. Hartmut Raffler, who played a key role in managing the study at Siemens. Raffler also says the development of “green ICT” will be especially important in the future. Such technologies will help conserve energy - for example, in energy-efficient buildings that are intelligently managed and controlled with ICT systems. The devices in such buildings could return surplus energy to the grid without threatening its stability.

An Internet of Energy. Raffer predicts the future will also bring an “Internet of energy” containing many network nodes that intelligently link participants in the energy system. Participants will include households, industrial consumers, energy supply and storage companies, electric vehicles, and electronic marketplaces. ICT and the energy system will then merge into a unit in which energy can flow in any desired direction. Corporate Technology is working intensively on the development of solutions for the Internet of energy (see Pictures of the Future, Fall 2009, p. 14). According to Raffler, the international study’s assessment of many key technologies makes it particularly valuable. “The global perspective of the study’s experts enables us to better estimate exactly when certain innovations might be successful on specific markets,” he says. Delphi experts also concluded that open innovation is essential if Europe is to compete with the U.S. and eastern Asia in the innovation realm. “We must open our companies and let in expert knowledge from the outside,” Raffler says. “Open innovation is already well under way at Siemens, and we’re transforming ourselves from a company whose philosophy is ‘the lab is our world’ into one that takes the view that ‘the world is our lab.’”