SIEMENS

The world's population has doubled over the last 40 years, and now stands at 6.8 billion. Some 60 % of these people live in Asia, and according to the United Nations, an additional 2.3 billion human beings, most of them from developing countries, will inhabit the earth by 2050. Birth rates are particularly high in Africa, where the population will double to nearly two billion by 2050. Women in Niger, for example, bear an average of seven children today—although nearly 117 of 1000 newborns die, mainly as a result of malnutrition. In China, on the other hand, the country's One-Child Policy—which has been relaxed somewhat to allow for exceptions—has led to a fertility rate of only 1.8 children per woman. “China's current population of more than 1.3 billion will rise to a relative peak of 1.47 billion in 2040 before beginning to decline,” says Jiang Weiping, Director General of the China Population and Development Research Center. At that point, the Chinese will account for “only” 15 % of the global population—that's 5 % less than today.

With an average fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, the population of the United States will grow from nearly 310 million today to 392 million by 2050, whereby this development will largely be due to immigration. According to the European Commission, the population of the EU-27 nations might also increase through immigration from the current 500 million or so to 528 million in 2030. At the current fertility rate of 1.5 children per woman, such growth in the EU would not be possible without immigration, as a rate of 2.1 children per woman would be required to prevent the population in the EU from declining.

The low birth rate in the European Union is a result of younger people studying longer, a high number of women in the workforce, an increasingly uncertain labor market, and widespread access to modern contraceptives. However, a slight uptick may take place here in the long term. According to a recent study by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, and the Vienna Institute of Demography (Austria), birth rates in many industrialized nations are now slowly rising again. Experts say this is due to the fact that women are not waiting as long to have babies as they did in the 1990s. In addition, many countries, such as France, offer extensive support, financial aid, tax breaks, and other incentives to help young mothers quickly return to the workforce.

Changing demographics doesn't just mean rising populations but also an increasing number of older individuals. Declining infant mortality rates, improved medical care, and lower physical stress due to less manual labor are all leading to an increase in the average age of populations—particularly, in industrialized countries. As a result, the UN expects the proportion of people over 60 to increase from the current 11 % to nearly 22 % by 2050. This means that whereas 737 million people were 60 or older in 2009, nearly two billion will be in this agegroup in 2050. Life expectancy in China, for example, has increased from 41 to 72 over the last 50 years, and today more than 100 million Chinese—or over 8 % of the population—are over 65. According to the UN, this number will grow almost fourfold by 2050.

This is already leading to greater demand for medical diagnostic services and treatments. China, in fact, is seeing a rise in chronic illnesses brought about by a higher standard of living and an associated lack of exercise and unhealthy diets. Health care costs in the country are now rising faster than the economy is growing. Traditionally, grown-up children have cared for their elderly parents in China—but the long-term consequences of the One-Child Policy will make such care more and more difficult to manage in the future.

According to the European statistical agency, Eurostat, the proportion of EU citizens who are 65 or older will increase from the current 17.1 % to 30 % by 2060. This means that for every person over 65, there will be only two people of employable age, as opposed to the one-to-four ratio at the moment. In addition, one out of every seven Germans will be over 80 in 2050. The population structure in the industrialized nations already looks more like a mushroom than the classical pyramid, and this is putting a tremendous strain on pension systems. The European Commission therefore recommends that EU member states significantly raise their retirement ages. Aging populations also have an impact on gross domestic product (GDP) because the latter is dependent upon employment levels and productivity. As a result, it will become more difficult to achieve economic growth if the number of employed individuals declines. It's often believed that an aging population leads to a decrease in innovation due to a lack of dynamic, youthful energy and ideas. There's more to innovation than just ideas, however. The most important thing is the implementation and successful marketing of innovations—and older people in particular possess a wealth of knowledge and experience in this regard. In its annual study of innovation activity and capability (“Innovation Barometer”), the German inspection services provider Dekra found that companies in which there is no exchange of knowledge between employees of various age groups successfully transform less than 10 % of all their ideas into marketable products. However, companies that have a regular exchange of information between young and old successfully place around 20 % of their ideas on the market. In addition, organizations with more employees over 49 than employees under 36 are able to market 30 % of their ideas.