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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Siemens, by 2030, worldwide electricity generation will grow by 63 % relative to 2008, to a total of 33,000 TWh. An increasingly large proportion of this power will be based on renewable energy sources. The IEA and Siemens expect that the amount of electricity generated from wind, solar energy, biomass, and geothermal energy will increase nearly ten fold from 581 TWh to 5,583 TWh, with wind power driving much of that growth. According to these projections, the amount of wind-generated electricity fed into the grid will increase around thirteen fold.
Even more impressive is the growth in solar electricity, which is expected to grow 140-fold, but from a much lower level. If at least a portion of the Desertec project (Solar Energy) is completed by 2030, much of this additional solar electricity could be produced by solar thermal power plants in the deserts of northern Africa and the Middle East, in addition to photovoltaic systems. According to a recent study by Clean Edge Inc., a market analysis company specialized in the clean technology sector, worldwide sales for photovoltaic and wind energy systems and biofuels will increase from roughly $116 billion in 2009 to $325 billion in 2018. (Sales of solar thermal systems, which Clean Edge did not take into consideration, must also be added to this figure). Wind power will generate some $140 billion by 2018.
There is a two-pronged solution to this problem. On the one hand, energy storage (see article "Trapping the Wind") — whether in the form of pumped storage power plants, compressed air storage, hydrogen caverns, or even the batteries of electric cars (see article "From Wind to Wheels") — could be expanded. On the other hand, electric grids could be more comprehensively linked — across regions, national borders, or even continents. The expansion of power grids is already unavoidable because offshore wind farms (see article "High-Altitude Harvest") and solar thermal power plants in the desert will have to be connected. Siemens is among the companies currently involved in the erection of a high-capacity, high-voltage direct current transmission lines (HVDC) in China to link hydroelectric plants in the country’s interior with megacities more than 1,400 km away on the coast (see article "China's River of Power"). The State Grid Corporation, a grid operator in China, expects $44 billion will be invested in HVDC technology by 2012.
According to the UCTE — the Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity — some €300 billion must be invested in new power and gas lines in Europe over the next 25 years. "German utility companies alone plan to invest €40 to €50 billion in the modernization of the grids, with €15 to €25 billion of that going into smart grid technology," says Rolf Adam, a principal at Booz & Company.
Smart grids (see article "Switching on the Vision") involve not only intelligent electric meters and solutions for flexible billing, but also energy management, grid status monitoring, and the integration of a wide variety of small, decentralized power generators and consumers. All of this is intended to make power grids more transparent, more flexible and more secure.
Market experts at ABI Research expect that roughly 73 million smart meters will be installed worldwide in 2009. Two years ago, the equivalent figure was just 49 million. In the U.S. alone, the government hopes to have a good 41 million intelligent meters installed as part of 15 projects by 2015. The U.S. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) estimates that the creation of a nationwide smart grid over the next two decades will cost around $165 billion.
Based on IEA and EPRI data, market analysts at Morgan Stanley Research estimate that the worldwide market volume for smart grid technologies will increase from roughly $22 billion in 2010 to $115 billion in 2030. This corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 8.8 %, making smart grid technologies one of the most exciting growth markets of the decades ahead.